Previous Outlook is below. Only change that I'm going to make to with the final outlook is to take Myself up on an enhanced 30% Damaging Wind Probability for the I-95 corridor from Northern DE to Central CT. I mentioned with previous outlook this was a definate possibility last night, but wanted to wait until the RUC came in this Morning before jumping on this potential. SPC seems to have gone that road as well.
Other than that, not going to change much at all. The RUC, similar to the 00z GFS, looks grossly overdone with amount of destabilization, showing a long corridor AOA 3000 J/KG from CT to Delmarva Vicinity. Nevertheless, Visible Sat shows strong clearing over the Coastal Plain as of this writing, so sufficient destabilization doesn't look to be a question any more.
While the RUC does hint at a fairly solid corridor of potent helicity in and around the Tri-State area this Afternoon/Early Evening, not going to upgrade the Tornado probability as SPC has done, as primary storm mode will be more linear in nature with straight-line damaging winds the primary threat. Nonetheless, still can't rule out a brief/weak tornado if a few discrete supercells can develop.
..EGAN.. 07/26/2009
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