For Today, the setup looks pretty lackluster to say the least for organized severe storms. Current radar shows large batch of locally heavy rainfall with a few embedded rumbles located along and west of the Appalachians in western sections of the area. With rich Dp’s, high pwat’s, and weak wind fields in place, think the bigger potential Today will surround heavy rainfall and the potential for some flood advisories and/or warnings.
None the less, can’t rule out a few isolated severe storms where pockets of moderate instability are realized during the Afternoon/Evening hours along and ahead of slow moving cold front draped across the Appalachians. Current SPC D2 Outlook looks pretty good based on 00z runs, so wouldn’t expect much change, aside from perhaps tightening up the eastern periphery of current D2 5% probability for upcoming D1 Outlook. To me, it appears best chance for a few brief severe storms with marginally severe hail/damaging wind gusts will be along/west of I-81 across NY/PA, and along/west of I-95 thru VA. Overall, suspect we will see less than 15 severe weather reports on the day.
..EGAN.. 07/23/2009
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