I just happen to be at the helm tonight for issuing the map and disco for a change as Logan won't be able to get to the computer for awhile due to a fire call. However, I decided to differ from SPC's broad slight risk and go with a split up 15% slight risk. The NAM shows a notable hole in the CAPEs in PA, MD and northern VA, better dynamics are also found further north. The GFS also shows the same general thing , but the more precise resolution of the NAM is favored for our forecast.
While CAPES and LI are relatively decent in a good portion of the mid-atlantic and northeast, the models are not printing out alot of precip, so the idea here is that thunderstorms will be at a premium, but whatever ones that do develop in the slight risk areas will have a decent chance of being severe. In general, we're looking for wind to be the primary threat but will keep wind/hail threats even at 15%.
EHI values are modest at best and centered along the Eastern NY border infringing into western Mass. and CT and up into Vermont and New Hampshire. A 2% tornado risk was used to encompass the area of enhanced forecast EHI, though the best chances for any tornadic development will likely be further south in the NY Hudson Valley from say.. around Albany southward.
..GLUNT.. 07/16/2009
The maps:
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