Update on Early Season Snow event...

A couple of changes to previous snow accumulation outlook.

First off, going to extend timing thru Saturday Morning, which will undoubtedly push some locations over 6", hence went ahead with a 6-12" range. Power outages are likely in this corridor of heaviest snow. This corridor includes Bradford, Clearfield, Elk, Cameron, Clinton, Lycoming, McKean, Potter, Sullivan, Tioga, and Wyoming Counties in Northcentral PA. Also, this includes the Pocono Mtn. counties of Carbon, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, Pike, and Wayne. Accumulations will vary widely within the ranges due to elevation. For instance, expecting only around 3" in the Wyoming Valley, but upwards of 8" in the nearby Pocono Mtns.

The 3-7" range has been nudged northward another tier of counties to include the entire Southern Tier of NY from Chatauqua Cnty. to the Catskill counties of Delaware, Greene, Otsego, Sullivan, and Ulster.

Lastly, inserted a 1-3" range in the Taconics, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills of NY/MA/CT.

In all likelihood, going to probably need another update as we progress thru the day on Friday, as it appears likely that snow will be lingering from Northeastern PA to interior New England for Sunday. But, one step at a time.

..EGAN.. 10/15/2009

October 15-16 Winter Storm...

This is going to be a complicated scenario with the marginal temps. Precip amounts, rates, elevation, local terrain, ground temps, etc are all going to dictate how much certain folks receive. Our map includes a fairly straight-forward 1-3 and 3-7. Basically, we feel the majority of accumulations will fall in these categories. Elevation will be a factor of course, so the lower spots will receive the low end of the categories. The potential is there for amounts to be higher than what we got, especially in the usual suspect regions of the Alleghenies and northern/NE PA. Also, compared to the HPC guidance, this is a pretty conservative forecast. HPC Day 2 outlooks outline almost all of central PA in at least a 40% prob of >4 inches. We will find out soon enough.

This map covers the first wave, not the secondary system as of yet. We will fine tune our forecast as the evolution of that becomes more clear. This storm is likely going to make a major mess, generally most of the trees in central and northern PA still have foliage.. and around here about half of them (oaks) still have some green left.

..GLUNT..10/15/09