Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook for Thursday, July 16, 2009...

Discussion...
With the GFS slowing down frontal passage timing on the 00z run, it has eliminated some of the earlier timing differences between the itself and the bulk of the remaining models, such that, confidence is a bit better than normal for a D3 SWO. None the less, will lean toward the NAM solution for this Outlook at the present time. By 09z Thursday, frontal placement looks to be located in the vicinity of Western MI/Northwestern IN.

By 00z Thursday, front is shown to be entering Western NY/PA. This is optimal timing for a good chunk of the M-A/N-E to become entrenched in the warm sector and placed in a favorable environment for severe weather on Thursday, especially for interior areas west of I-95 where forcing will be greater during peak heating hours of the Afternoon/Evening. Sufficient bulk shear will be in place for organized convection as well. For now, will cap probabilities at 15%, but can't rule out an upgrade for a portion of the area in later outlooks.

..EGAN.. 07/14/2009