Update on Ongoing Clipper...

Latest guidance suggests a slight southward trend to the track of the shortwave as it trudges across the Commonwealth. Therefore, we have decided to raise totals across eastern part of the Tr-State as well across southeastern New England. On average, we still expect a widespread advisory event for most, with locally up to 8-10" in Sern New England where some rather intense banding is expected to setup as the the Clipper intesifies offshore Wednesday. Elsewhere back to the west... widespread 2-6" amounts are likely with some isolated higher amounts in the Catskills/Berkshires/Litchfield Hills.

...LTE

Upcoming Mid-week Clipper System

Using mostly a GFS/GEFS blend...we are expecting a widespread advisory level snowfall spanning roughly between I-80/I-90 from Wrn NY/PA thru East Cntrl New England. Good Omega/fluff factor will yield favorable snow ratio's, particularly across PA/NY, where ratios should be in the 15-20:1 range. Using this in combination with an expected qpf field ranging from .1-.35, snow amounts should range from 2-6". Highest amounts of up to 6" will best be found in the higher terrain such as the Catskills/ northern Poconos/ southern Adirondacks/ Berkshires/ southern Greens. Other area will be extreme interior southeastern New England where some added Ocean enhancement is possible as the shortwave pushes offshore and undergoes intensification as it rapidly departs into the open waters.

We may be extending advisory snows south a tad across PA with this afternoon's reassessment, but overall, confidence is pretty high for this event to verify as shown.

...LTE

Major Nor' Easter to affect the Region...

Morning Update: Previous forecast remains in tact overall. Most noticeable difference was to pull back on accums. across western/central/southeastern Pennsylvania. Precipitation associated with primary low has been very disorganized overnight here producing only very minor accums, so feel threat of seeing anything more than 2 or 3" has diminished.

As for the main show set to unfold later this afternoon thru Monday morning. Latest model guidance suggest the coastal will take shape and develop a bit further east than previous runs. With this in mind...have cut back on the sig snow accums across the western Catskills and relegated any chance to receiving wrng snow to far eastern portions of Delaware/Otsego cntys in NY.

In turn, this slight eastward shift will likely bring higher totals into the immediate Boston metro area. Therefore, have bumped totals up here a bit to 3-6". Have also brought heaviest axis of snowfall closer to the coast along downeast Maine. More on this area in a moment.

Last area of adjustment... have increased totals across the Tug Hill/northern Adirondacks due to expected lake enhancement/effect from Ontario...especially tonight as winds increase out of the west/northwest as low pressure bombs out along the New England coast.

Across central/northern New England... buckle up and make sure your tray tables are in their upright and locked positions. A classic Nor' Easter will be affecting our weather over the next 36 hours in the form of heavy snow/high winds/dangerous wind chills with blizzard conditions likely later this evening/overnight as the storm reaches the Gulf of Maine. Along the coast...the Low Pressure may track just close enough to bring the chance of sleet across the immediate coastline. This will limit accumulations somewhat...but on average still expecting 8-12". Across interior...10-20" is likely stretching from northern VT thru most of NH/ME...with highest totals in the northern mtns. of NH/interior ME. Localized accumulations could exceed this amount. Winds will only throw fuel on the fire as system really begins to crank up as it chugs off to the northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. Widespread blowing snow will continue well into Monday even after snow has ended. This will make travel extremely difficult if not impossible...especially on secondary roads. Power outages also expected...especially across Maine. Bottomline... any outdoor activity would be strongly discouraged. Best advice would be to stay inside, fetch a bowl of New England Clam Chowder, and keep warm by the fireplace!

...LTE

Significant Winter Storm likely Tonight-Monday...

As said yesterday, we feel this is going to be a widespread advisory event along/east of I-79/west of I-95/south of I-90. For most part...2-6" will be the general rule. 2-4" most likely across Pennsylvania..with 3-6" across areas of the Northern Tier of PA and south of I-90. Highest amounts closest to 6" will be in the Pocono mtns. northeast into the western Catskills. Only exceptions will be across the lake effect snow belts off Lake Erie/Ontario...where lake enhancement/effect will help to boost totals. May be expanding higher totals here...as Lake effect potential will be increasing overnight Sunday. Other is the Catskills mtns. where we think 5-10" is a possible...especially across the eastern half of the mountains into western Ulster/Greene/Schoharie cntys.

Across New England...this has the makings to be a classic Nor' Easter. Heavy snow/high winds will reign down on interior New England Sunday Night into Monday as coastal Low begins to bomb out along/or just of the Maine coast. Along the Massachusetts coast...specifically the southern Cape, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard... could start as snow before changing over to rain. Biggest threat there will likely be the winds. For now, we are playing conservative along the shore counties of Maine...where we think a general 6-10 is most likely at this time, though we will be open to possible expansion of higher totals with next update later this Evening. Further north/west from the mountains of eastern VT/western-northern NH/northwest Maine... a solid 10+ looks likely with possible blizzard conditions...especially across interior Maine.

...LTE

First storm beginning to wind down; Next Storm on the Horizon

Our snowmaker from Friday is beginning to wind down...with only some deform precip located over VT/NH/southwest Maine left. Storm rapidly pushing off shore and out to sea. In it's wake, Saturday should be a nice day across much of the Northeast before clouds beginning advancing northward from the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the next system slated to affect the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Sunday and Monday.

At the present time... it appears likely that many areas from Pennsylvania to Maine will see wintry precip from this in the form snow. ATTM, this looks to be mainly a widespread advisory event along/west of I-95/east of I-79/south of I-90. This is in response to a Double-barrel Low pressure system advancing northeast up thru the Ohio Valley before handing off its energy and forming a Low Pressure along the Delmarva coast. From there it will track northeast to a position near Cape Cod Sunday night.

As of right now...current guidance suggests along and north/east of I-87/I-90 corridor (Capital District and points north/east) stand the best chance for significant snow in excess of 7". As Low pressure reaches Cape Cod...it is forecasted to deepen rapidly and undergo bombogenesis as it tracks into the Gulf of Maine by Monday. This will deliver a widespread moderate-heavy snowfall across central/northern New England before storm exits into the Canadian Maritimes. Along with the snow... very strong winds will also plague the region resulting in near blizzard conditions across the interior. Coastal sections of New England from Boston thru downeast Maine will be a close call regarding whether significant snow will reach the coastline. 0z NAM brought the Low pressure ashore into southeast MA and into central Maine. This track would yield a snow to rain scenario across much of southeast MA/downeast Maine. It should be said that the final storm track is not set in stone... which will determine how much snow coastal sections of Massachusetts/Maine see. More on this storm Saturday Morning. Stay Tuned.

...LTE

Update on Impending Winter Storm...

Morning Update: Unfortunately have made more adjustments than we planned on when we issued our 1st map Thursday Evening. Safe to say the bust potential is on the increase and further adjustments may be warranted. For now, have bumped up ending time by 3 hours to 9AM Saturday. Second, have cut back on 10-14" swath significantly, and reserved it to the Catskills region of NY and Wayne county PA. Do to fast progression of the system, we feel widespread threat for 12"+ has decreased and will be more isolated in nature. Have also refined accumulation range a tad...going with T-2/2-6 instead of T-3/3-7. Other change is to bring heavier snows a tad to the north across NY/New England.

As stated... this may need further adjustment... and we are concerned for areas south of I-80 seeing more mixing than was originally thought, which could really cut into snowfall amounts. Something that bears watching. For now, will forego any major overhaul and let previous forecast (outside of aforementioned adjustments) run thru next update which should be later this morning.

Observations out of the Midwest seem to be defying what models showed on tonights run in terms of thermal profiles. It appears mixing is being observed much further north than what was originally advertised by 0z models. Should this translate eastward...we may be in trouble in terms of southward extent of significant snow. We shall see.

...LTE

Major Winter Storm set to move into the Northeast...

Thursday Evening Update: Potent storm system is now getting it's act together across the Midwest, and move east spreading snow into western PA/NY later tonight and Friday morning. During the day Friday, snow should really get going across northern PA/southern NY by late morning... and across the Tri-state/western New England by early afternoon. Storm should begin to pull out into the Atlantic Saturday Morning shutting off precip over eastern New England. Significant snow accumulations are likely across a large chunk of the Northeast.

Across New York/Pennsylvania...Snow fall rates could exceed 1"/hr. cross northern-eastern PA/southern-eastern NY/western New England during Friday afternoon/evening. Heaviest axis of snow should be centered across the Twin Tiers of NY/PA eastward into Catskills/Berkshires/Litchfield-Worcester Hills. Widespread snowfall totals will likely be in the 10-14" range in these areas by the time tapers off. Elsewhere... expecting a widespread area of 6-12" along I-90 from Buffalo-Syracuse-Albany... as well as northern/eastern PA primarily along and north of I-80, and east of I-81.

Across the Tri-State...very tough call in terms of NYC Metro/L.I. ATTM, still appears likely that some mixing will take place with an outside chance of even a changeover to sleet/rain. For this reason... will keep heaviest snows north/west of I-95 for the time being and re-evaluate after 0z runs come in.

Across New England... this will likely be an all snow event... even to the shores of the Long Island Sound. Widespread accumulations of 6-12" are likely...with highest amounts across northern CT/western-central MA in the higher terrain. Winds will also become a bigger player as the storm moves off the coast, especially across southeast MA/Rhode Island/western CT. This will lead to significant blowing/drifting of snow on Friday Night/Saturday Morning.

...LTE

Major Winter Storm likely across the Northeast to end the workweek...

With current storm winding down across Maine... we will be turning our attention to the next winter storm set to arrive late Thursday ending on Saturday. At the present time, fairly good model consesus in terms of QPF and track...which looks to be between I-86/I-80. With High Pressure parked to the north in southern Canada... this will likely yield a significant snowstorm across north central/eastern PA/upstate NY/eastward into New England... with upwards of a foot possible in many areas...especially between I-86/I-90. Lesser amounts to the south and east where more mixed precip is likely. However...storm track is still not set in stone, and a shift to the north or south will have big influence on precip-type and amounts. Stay tuned.

...LTE

Winter Storm underway across the Northeast...

Afternoon Update: Just some minor tweaks with this afternoon's package. We have now shifted advisory level snowfall further north into far northern Maine/New York where previous update had 1-3". Have also elected to slightly downgrade expected snow totals from 3-7" to 3-6". Outside of that...forecast remains unchanged. See Previous discussion below.

...LTE

Another Winter Storm to Impact the Northeast...

Synopsis...
Went with a GFS/NAM/SREF blend for this forecast. Storm system developing over the Midwest will push eastward during the day today spreading a wintry mix across the northern Mid-Atlantic region during the Afternoon hours lasting into tonight. Later this Evening, snow should breakout across New York state into western New England. By Wednesday morning, storm system should be making its way toward the coast, where some redevelopment is expected. This will bring moderate snow accumulations to much of Maine during the day Wednesday into Wednesday Evening before rapidly moving off to the northeast.

...LTE

Northern Mid-Atlantic...
All areas should start out as snow...locally mdt-hvy at times, across the southern half of Pennsylvania and northern portions of WV,VA, MD into western NJ. Eventually, warmer air should sneak into the upper levels and allow sleet to begin mixing in, before a change to mostly sleet/FzRa is expected. Prior to the changeover, we believe there will be a large area of 2-5" spanning from the Laurel Highlands north and east into the Northern Tier and NErn PA. We expect valley locals in swrn/sern PA to experience a quicker changeover to sleet/FzRa, thus keeping snow/sleet totals under 3" for the most part. As far as ice potential goes, we expect anywhere from .1-.3" ice accretion, with highest accretion in the Shenendoah/Ohio/Susquehanna Valleys. Mainly rain expected along and east of I-95 from Baltimore/DC thru central NJ.

...LTE

New York/New England...
Snow should begin to move into wrn/cntrl NY this evening...becoming locally mdt-hvy at times during the first part of the overnight before sleet begins to mix in...especially across the Southern Tier and Hudson River Valley. Highest amounts should be along the NYS Thruway (I-90), where little in the way of mixing is forecasted. This shud keep snow the predominate form of precip thruout the duration of the storm, thus have forecasted 3-7" here. Across NYC metro/southern New England...snow should start, but quickly become mixed with and change to sleet before changing to rain overnight. Only around a Trace-1" is expected here, mainly along and north/west of I-95. As storm pushes off the coastline Wednesday Morning, some redevelopment is expected as snow will be affecting much of interior New England. As storm begins to rapidly lift off to the northeast, snow should wind down considerably by Wednesday Afternoon. Total accumulations should range from 2-5"...highest amounts inland away from the coast.

...LTE

Winter Storm Continues across Interior Northeast...

Update as of 5:45PM...Just some minor tweaks to the current forecast. First is too downgrade extreme northern/northwestern New England and keep average totals in the 6-12" range as it is becoming increasingly eveident that significant mixing will make inroads further north and west than previously thought. One other tweak was to bring advisory level snowfall a tad to the south across the Laurel Ridge...stretching just over the Mason-Dixon line into western MD. Outside of that, rest of forecast will go unchanged.

...LTE

Major Winter Storm underway across the Northeast...

Powerful Low pressure beginning to lift north from the Southeast U.S. will bring significant winter weather thru much of the interior Northeast today and Friday. Precip type will stay mainly rain along and east of I-81 from Maryland up to I-78 in the lower Susq. Valley of PA, and northward along and east of I-95 to Boston. Ice will be a problem into the southern Poconos east-northeast into the southern Catskills on over into southwestern New England, where up to 1" of ice...locally higher amounts can be found, especially in the higher terrain. Widespread power outages likely in the southern Catskills and interior central New England.

Regarding snowfall potential...
After much deliberation... We have come to a solution as far as snowfall is concerned that we believe is most reasonable at the present time. That said, there are a few problematic areas that may need further adjusting that unfortunately may not be fully resolved until storm is on doorstep or occurring due to complexity of the situation.

First area is across central PA associated more with tonights evolution. Although mid and upper air temps look marginal for mostly snow, we believe there is enough potential for advisory level snowfall across the Laurel Ridge increasing to as much as 6-8" across the mountains of the central northern Tier along the NY border.

Second area is across northern NY with regard to how far significant precip can advance to north and west, as here anything that falls will likely be all snow and a significant amount. ATTM, we decided against bringing higher totals to the southern Adirondacks but will keep a close eye on this, but potential for some areas to see 12" looks possible. Across the mountains of northern New England, we think this area is prime for the heaviest snows, especially across extreme western Maine. Great snow ratios and expected minimal sleet incursion should yield a heavy blanket on the folks in this region. That said, if more mixing occurs than previously expected, snow amounts will need to be lowered accordingly.

Last item is how far east do backside snows accumulate. We think best shot to see any accumulation will be along and west of I-81 south of Mason/Dixon and up to I-78. From there we think accumulations stay west of I-95 up into New England...despite an expected changeover to snow showers/flurries all the way to the coast.

...MAG/LTE

12z GFS lights up the Northeast

The GFS at 12z has suddenly come on board with a slower but phased solution for the much talked about late week storm that rides up the coast and provides a shot for a widespread snow event for alot of folks. It's one run, but it has some support in the SREF means. Will see how the Euro pans out later on.





...MAG

Clipper rolls thru; Lake Effect snow to follow...

Due to timing constraints, have opted to follow NWS forecast product closely this update concerning the Clipper System and trailing lake effect snows, with only some minor tweaks.

Concerning the Clipper... per latest radar, first batch of precip about to make its way offshore with many areas reporting light snow with upwards of a coating as this moved thru, with rain mixing in aross the immediate coast. Final batch of precip is now entering western PA and will move thru during the overnight, producing another coating to an inch in most places from western PA to the coastal plain. One other noticeable area of snow was across the western half of upstate NY, where light to moderate snow was falling. Expecting widespread trace-1" in this area, with up to 2" in the heavier bands. This batch of precip is progged to continue off to the east-northeast into western New England during the overnight hours.

Other concern is across the eastern half of Maine, where latest radar showing some enhanced banding activity affecting the area. Have followed closely with NWS forecast, and issued a swath of 3-7" across this area...with heaviest accumulations of up to 7" across the far east on the Canadian border and lesser amounts of around 3" along the coastline.

Concerning lake effect potential: Have also stayed close to NWS forecast on this potential, with heaviest snows southeast of Lake Erie. Do to expected short duration of the event, total snowfall totals look to remain below the 12" mark, with mostly advisory level accumulations. Off lake Ontario... this looks to be a solid advisory event here as well, with highest totals across the Tug Hill where up to 7" is possible. Elsewhere across north central NY, a general 2-5" looks to be a good bet.

Behind frontal passage on Sunday...bitterly cold temperatures look to be on tap for overnight Sunday into Monday. It will be blustery with lows ranging from the teens and 20's across along the coast, to single digits inland. Wind chills will approach advisory criteria overnight Sunday into Monday morning across the interior northeast, especially interior New England and northern NY.

Next Week: Cold spell will be short-lived however as next system approaches region from the southwest on Tuesday bringing mixed precip and rain to much of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast before changing to all rain by Wednesday. Behind this system, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to a possible coastal storm to impact atleast a portion of the area by the end of the workweek. At any rate, upcoming week looks to be quite active. Will be taking a closer look at mid-week storm with next update.

...LTE

Winter Storm Beginning to Wind Down...

Morning Update...

Quick and final update on the storm this morning as system begins to wind up and push north into Canada. Last of the advisories have been dropped or allowed to expire this shift across upstate New York and western New England. Per latest radar, Back edge of precip rapidly moving off to the north and east thru New York with still some mixing going on across the highest peaks of the Adirondacks with all other sites reporting rain at this time where precip is falling. Several reports of 2-4" thus far across the Adirondacks/Greens of NY/VT, with a T-1" being reported across most valley locals of eastern/northern NY.

Into northern New Hampshire and much of Maine, steadier precip was still falling, especially across the northwestern half of Maine, with the backedge currently across NY still to move thru. Latest radar shows much of the precip falling as a mix across central/northern Maine, with snow confined to the far north. For this reason, feel another inch or two is still possible across interior sections thru noon today, especially across the northwestern half of the state and higher terrain. Several reports of over 3" across the western mtns of Aroostook cnty as of late Sunday evening... so total snowfall will likely end up in the 4-5" range in this area.

Behind departing system, a brief episode of Lake Effect snows off Lakes Erie and Ontario beginning this evening and lasting into the better part of Tuesday. Lake Effect Snow Advisories have been hoisted to the east-northeast of both lakes for upwards of 8" in the most persistent snow bands. Will re-assess this event later this morning or early afternoon.

...LTE