Afternoon Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook for July 1, 2009

Updated and Final D1 Outlook is ready to go. Slight Risk has been extended into VA/VT/RI, and locally extended in NY/MA/PA/MD by a few counties. Slight Risk includes the following counties:

Connecticut: Fairfield, Hartford, Litchfield, Middlesex, New Haven, New London, Tolland, Windham.

Delaware: Kent, New Castle, Sussex.

Maryland: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Baltimore City, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Frederick, Harford, Howard, Kent, Montgomery, Prince George's, Queen Anne's, Saint Mary's, Somerset, Talbot, Washington, Wicomico, Worcester.

Massachusetts: Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester.

New Jersey: Atlantic, Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Salem, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren.

New York: Albany, Bronx, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Fulton, Greene, Kings, Montgomery, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens, Renssalaer, Richmond, Rockland, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Suffolk, Sullivan, Ulster, Washington, West Chester.

Pennsylvania: Adams, Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Cumberland, Dauphin, Delaware, Franklin, Lackawanna, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Monroe, Montgomery, Northampton, Perry, Philadelphia, Pike, Schuykill, Wayne, York.

Rhode Island: Bristol, Kent, Newport, Providence, Washington.

Vermont: Bennington, Windham.

Virginia: Accomack, Albermarle, Alleghany, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Augusta, Bath, Bedford, Botetourt, Buckingham, Campbell, Caroline, Charlotte, Chesterfield, Clarke, Culpeper, Cumberland, Essex, Fairfax, Fauquier, Fluvanna, Franklin, Frederick, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, Highland, King and Queen, King George, King William, Lancaster, Loudon, Louisa, Madison, Middlesex, New Kent, Northumberland, Nottoway, Orange, Page, Pittsylvania, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Roanoke, Rockingham, Salem, Shenendoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland.

West Virginia: Berkeley, Jefferson.

Discussion...
Not much has changed in terms of overall extent of expected perameters Today, however, overall spread of favorable severe weather perameters has increased. Thus, local extensions of the risk were warranted. Severe Weather checklisk features MLCAPE values exceeding 1350 J/KG over much of the risk area coupled with sufficient low level Bulk Shear of 30-45 kts. and Negative Lifted Indices of -3 to -7. This will continue to be supportive of multi-cellular/segments as well as few low-topped supercells, any of which could become severe and produce large hail/damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall and perhaps a tornado or two.

..EGAN..