Verification for Saturday is complete. Overall, on a larger scale, given the complexity of the situation, not going to beat myself over the head too much. Obviously, an unforeseen situation developed over Ohio/Western PA, that is, the lack of any severe weather. This was unexpected by many, if not everyone, so I can't complain too much. SPC was the most aggressive of anyone Today with a 30% Damaging Wind/5% Tornado probability over this empty region. They consequentially overhauled their outlooks by mid-afternoon as things were obviously not panning out as expected. Other than that the lack of severe weather in the central half of the Slight Risk, everything else ended up okay, such as the eastern edges of the severe probabilities held their ground and managed to contain all severe weather reports, despite a few un-verified warnings east of the probability lines. Also, generic thunderstorm line held up, with storms staying west of the line until the last hour or two.
Total of 40 Severe Weather reports...
Slight Risk captured 27/40 Severe Weather reports;
15% Severe Wind Probability: Captured 14/24 Severe wind gusts/Wind Damage reports.
15% Severe Hail Probability: Captured 12/15 Severe Hail reports.
2% Tornado Probability: Captured 1/1 Reported/Confirmed Tornadoes. A few tornado warnings were issued over a 3 county area in interior Western NY. 1 confirmed EF-1 is the current result, with numerous wind damage reports yet to be investigated in Monroe County NY. Potential is there for atleast 1 additional tornado confirmation pending further surveys to be conducted Sunday.
Isolated Severe captured 13/40 Severe Weather Reports;
5% Severe Wind Probability: Captured 10/24 Severe Wind gusts/Wind Damage reports.
5% Severe Hail Probability: Captured 3/15 Severe Hail reports.
..EGAN.. 07/25/2009
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