Looking at Today's setup, there is certainly potential for severe weather. Going to have to agree with overall consesus that today's threat will be greatly impacted on the amount of destabilization that takes place. The NAM and GFS disagree rather markedly on the amount on CAPE for today, especially over southern New England. The NAM is rather putrid in terms overall destabilization across much of the area, generally 1000 J/KG or less. The GFS seems to be dead set on a fairly expansive area of 1500-2000 J/KG. This difference will not be resolved until mid-morning when the RUC and surface observations should be able to help better discern the amount of destabilization to occur.
If we can manage to muster enough instability, severe convection is likely, especially over Southern New England. Here, deep layer/low level shear values are progged around 40-50kts and would be very supportive of organized convection. In addition, storm relative helicity values are coming in right around 300, which is borderline condusive for supercellular development.
Because of the high uncertainty regarding amount of destabilization, going to remain a little more conservative at this point in time and keep severe hail/wind probabilities on the lowest 5% level until mid-morning analysis unveils a more deliberate area that warrants higher severe weather potential. Most favorable area for this happening would be over Southern New England southwest into NJ/DE vicinity.
Normally I wouldn't do this with out atleast a 15% Slight Risk in play, but due to the favorable kinematic environment over southern New England, don't feel comfortable leaving tornado probabilities less than 2%. Therefore, will carry a low 2% probability at this time.
..EGAN..
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