Severe Weather Outlook Verification for Tuesday, July 7, 2009...

Discussion...

Total of 85 severe weather reports, 60 severe hail/25 wind damage.

Slight Risk captured 66/85 reports;
15% Severe Wind Probability: captured 25/25 wind damage reports.
15% Severe Hail Probability: captured 41/60 severe hail reports.
2% Tornado Probability: captured 0/0 reported/confirmed tornadoes. (Possibly subject to change).

Isolated Severe captured 19/85 reports;
5% Severe Wind Probability: captured 0/25 wind damage reports.
5% Severe Hail Probability: captured 19/60 severe hail reports.

All in all, would have liked to have captured few more hail reports w/ the 15% Hail vs. 5% Hail up here in Central NY, especially Onondaga/Broome () Counties which contributed to 7/19 reports outside Slight Risk. Underestimated the severe potential in Central NY with the Overnight Outlook, and was forced to locally extend Slight Risk west from Eastern NY to Central NY, but still wasn't quite far enough. In hind sight and based on amount of congestion in the reports, it may have been possible to leverage a localized 30% Hail/Wind Probability somewhere within the Slight Risk, most likely from about Hartford County CT southwest to West Chester County NY. Outside of that, not too bad.

..EGAN..