Just a quick update to the Overnight D1 SWO before I run out here for a little bit. Little bit surprised SPC doesn't have a Slight Risk posted by now for the Delmarva Vicinity into PA/NJ, but with or without their support, going to maintain continuity from previous Overnight Outlook posted above in #56.
Latest RUC supports my forecast from last night which leaned on the 00z NAM, and that is, a corridor of more robust convection development appears to exist this Afternoon/Evening across the Southeast portion of the area where healthy SBCAPE/LI/Shear are co-located. Earlier Slight Risk included Eastern VA/MD/DE, but based on latest RUC, felt risk expansion into Southeastern PA/Southern NJ is warranted. Hence, final outlook will feature an extension of previous Slight Risk, which will continue to carry an equal 15/15 weight for severe hail/damaging wind. RUC also supports the NAM with minimal helicity values, therefore tornado threat will continue to remain below 2%.
..EGAN.. 07/24/2009
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