Winter Storm continues across the interior Northeast...

Evening Update:

New York/New England...
Based on current radar, appears I-90 is now snow vs. mix line, with hills/mountains to the south experiencing a rain/sleet/freezing rain mix, with primarily rain in valley locals. North of I-90, snow appears to be the predominate p-type, except in the Mohawk Valley where mostly rain is falling, with some mixing in spots. Based on this, will continue to forecast 2-6" across the Adirondack mtn. region thru tonite and into the first part of Monday morning.

Other change is across central New England where cold air has been stubborn to budge, particularly across the hills of northern CT and central MA. For this reason, will expand area of T-2" across this area to account for mixing where up to an inch of snow/sleet is possible, mainly over the higher terrain.

...LTE

Northern Mid-Atlantic...
Current radar shows most of area has warmed above freezing, and thus precip was rain across large majority of region. Only places left where temps remain aob freezing were across the Laurel Highlands, northwest mtns., and Pocono mtns. In these areas, mixing will continue to occur thru the evening. I expect all areas to change to rain by or shortly after midnight, resulting in a end to the icing threat.

...LTE

Evening Update On Impending Storm...

After re-assessing, will forego any changes to forecast with this update and keep things as is for now. Chances of anyone seeing >6" appears to be very slim at this point. Previous Update below...

Northern Mid-Atlantic...

Expecting precipitation to begin as a period of snow or snow/sleet for many locations along/west of I-81 and north of I-80 before a changeover to rain occurs. Changeover will occur first in valley locals and gradually expand northward with the northwest mtns. that last place to experience a changeover. Here, advisory level snow amounts are certainly possible and have issued a swath of 3-6" across this area.

Elsewhere, a T-3" should be all that comes about from this storm with regards to snowfall, but that said, travel conditions will still be hazardous for a time until precip changes to all liquid. Areas along and east of I-81 to I-80 and over to the coast should begin as rain from the start, with a possible brief onset of some snow or sleet across the Susquehanna River Valley not out of the question, but feel this threat is minimal and any wintry precip should quickly transition to rain.

...LTE

New York/New England...

Precipitation should begin to overspread southern New York by noon Sunday, starting as a snow/sleet mixture. Rain will begin mixing in and eventually a changeover to all rain should occur from south-north, beginning in the valleys. Exception will be across the mtns. of the western Southern Tier and the Catskills of central NY where a prolonged period of snow/sleet is possible given the elevation, so have issued a swath of 3-6" to cover these areas. Other trouble spot will be across the Adirondack Mtns. of the north country, where it is not out of the question that low end warning amounts could be reached, but for now, will keep snow amounts in the advisory range and re-assess with later update.

Across the mtns. of northern New England, again this area will need to be monitored for a possible upgrade to snow amounts, but for now, will start out with 3-6" across the higher terrain. Couple limiting factors are the mixing potential, and marginal temperatures yielding to cut down on snow ratios. Whether or not these can be overcome to produce a significant snowfall will be a difficult challenge, but threat does exist and will need to be monitored.

Across the Tri-state northward across the Hudson River Valley, rain will be the predominate precip type. Tricky call across the immediate Capital Ditrict with regards to whether or not any snow accumulation will be observed, and for now have sued Albany as a cutoff point across the Hudson River Valley, with points south starting as a brief mixture before changing over to rain, with no accumulation. The same will go for the New England coastline along the plain where rain will likely keep any wintry threat virtually nil.

...LTE

Update on Winter Storm for Sunday-Tuesday...

Northern Mid-Atlantic...

Expecting precipitation to begin as a period of snow or snow/sleet for many locations along/west of I-81 and north of I-80 before a changeover to rain occurs. Changeover will occur first in valley locals and gradually expand northward with the northwest mtns. that last place to experience a changeover. Here, advisory level snow amounts are certainly possible and have issued a swath of 3-6" across this area.

Elsewhere, a T-3" should be all that comes about from this storm with regards to snowfall, but that said, travel conditions will still be hazardous for a time until precip changes to all liquid. Areas along and east of I-81 to I-80 and over to the coast should begin as rain from the start, with a possible brief onset of some snow or sleet across the Susquehanna River Valley not out of the question, but feel this threat is minimal and any wintry precip should quickly transition to rain.

...LTE

New York/New England...

Precipitation should begin to overspread southern New York by noon Sunday, starting as a snow/sleet mixture. Rain will begin mixing in and eventually a changeover to all rain should occur from south-north, beginning in the valleys. Exception will be across the mtns. of the western Southern Tier and the Catskills of central NY where a prolonged period of snow/sleet is possible given the elevation, so have issued a swath of 3-6" to cover these areas. Other trouble spot will be across the Adirondack Mtns. of the north country, where it is not out of the question that low end warning amounts could be reached, but for now, will keep snow amounts in the advisory range and re-assess with later update.

Across the mtns. of northern New England, again this area will need to be monitored for a possible upgrade to snow amounts, but for now, will start out with 3-6" across the higher terrain. Couple limiting factors are the mixing potential, and marginal temperatures yielding to cut down on snow ratios. Whether or not these can be overcome to produce a significant snowfall will be a difficult challenge, but threat does exist and will need to be monitored.

Across the Tri-state northward across the Hudson River Valley, rain will be the predominate precip type. Tricky call across the immediate Capital Ditrict with regards to whether or not any snow accumulation will be observed, and for now have sued Albany as a cutoff point across the Hudson River Valley, with points south starting as a brief mixture before changing over to rain, with no accumulation. The same will go for the New England coastline along the plain where rain will likely keep any wintry threat virtually nil.

...LTE

Wintry mess to round out the Holiday weekend...

Evening Update:

Its appearing more and more likely like a widespread wintry mix event across much of the interior M-A and N-E as opposed to a traditional snowstorm. Guidance seems to be settling on a double-barrel style synoptic event featuring a primary low developing and lifting north-northeast out of the TN River Valley Saturday Evening. As Low pressure deepens and makes it way into Ohio, it will draw warmer air north bound changing wintry precip over to plain rain south-north for many areas, beginning in the valleys.

Areas along and east of I-81 from northern VA to the I-78 corridor in the Susquehanna River Valley over to I-95 and points north thru the lower Hudson River Valley to the Maine coastline shud be all rain from the start, with chances of any significant wintry precip being virtually nil.

I feel only areas at this point with decent shot at seeing any significant snowfall from this will be the Adirondack Mtn. region of northern New York and the mountains of western Maine into extreme northern Vermont/New Hampshire. Like most other areas, Snow shud be the predominant precip to start...how long the precip remains snow before becoming mixed with sleet is the question. Feel there is a shot at reaching low end warning accumulations in these regions, but will be a challenge. Across northern NY, even a changeover to rain cannot be ruled out, which wud obviously cut down on snow amounts. Across northern New England, a changeover to rain is least likely here, especially over the higher terrain of northern VT/NH and western sections of ME. Significant snow/sleet accumulations are certainly possible across these regions, and will be re-evaluated after 0z model data can be analyzed.

Elsewhere across the remainder of the interior, a sloppy wintry mess is most probable before precip changes over to all rain. Expecting this to be widespread Advisory event with the exception being in the aforementioned areas.

Potent Storm to Affect the Northeast Sunday into Tuesday...

A powerful storm system is progged to affect the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast beginning Sunday and lasting into Tuesday. Many questions have still yet to be resolved after tonights 0z model package, and if anything, more uncertainty exists now than 24 hours ago. Models... in particular the UKMET...ECMWF, have trended well west and are showing a track thru western PA and NY which would yield a much wetter vs. whiter scenario for many across the M-A and N-E. GFS lies a bit east of this, with a track along the Appalachin mtns., this however would be least likely as storm tracks generally follow one side or the other. GEFS suite furthest east with a track along or just west of I-95.

ATTM... will go with a GFS/GEFS blend and side with a track that is just inland from I-95 across the coastal Plain. This wud result in an all rain event along and east of I-95 from Washington/Baltimore into the eastern half of New England. A wintry poupourri would affect areas along I-81 north of Harrisburg to Binghamton to Syracuse and up to the Champlain River Valley and the western half of New England. Best chance for predominantly snow would be confined to the mtns of central and western PA northward into the Finger Lake region of NY.

Again, to re-emphasize there remains considerable uncertainty with regard to the eventual evolution of this complex storm system, and a slight jog in the track to the east or west will greatly determine precip types and amounts. Please continue to check back here for the latest regarding this possible winter storm.

...LTE

Lake Effect Snow Continues...

Lake Effect snow continues to pile up east of Lake Ontario. Current Radar shows heaviest snows focused over the southern half of Jefferson cnty into western Lewis cnty. Snowfall rates will be 1-2"/hour in the heaviest core of snow. One report of 12" in Adams, NY out of central Jefferson cnty, see no reason why another 6-12" cant be achieved, and thus will continue to forecast another 6-12 across this area thru this afternoon. Those commuting on I-81 between Oswego/Jefferson line and Watertown will need to use extreme caution and prepare for very poor visibilities.

Off Lake Erie... snow has diminished considerably, with just some snow showers affecting the Genessee Valley per latest Radar. Accumulations should range from a Trace to as much as an inch or two thru this morning.

Latest model data suggest a potential Nor' Easter to affect much of the northeast in the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe, however much uncertainty exists with regard to eventual storm track which will determine precip type and amount. At this time, it appears interior portions of the northeast stand the best chance to see snow. Will continue to monitor this closely, and further address this with next update.

...LTE

Winter Storm Continues; Lake Effect Snow Ongoing...

Low Pressure continues to dump snow across interior New England this evening, with up to a foot possible along the mountains of interior Oxford/Franklin/Somerset/Piscataquis cntys. Rain and sleet will mix in at times across the valleys, with rain along the coast. Winds will also be gusting quite high along the immediate coast as low pressure moves inland. Bottomline... expecting a nasty night across western Maine with snow...heavy at times... and very blustery conditions lasting into the day on Wednesday.

...LTE

Lake Effect Potential...

Off Lake Ontario... as winds continue to back from the west, and eventually southwest, lake effect plumes should develop east/northeast of Lake Ontario overnight lasting into the morning. A general 2-6" is expected before the snow diminishes. However... expecting to see redevelopment by Wednesday evening, with significant snows possible. Greatest impacted area appears to be the Tug Hill region of northern Oswego/central Lewis into southern Jefferson cnty. Potential exists for up to a foot by early Thursday morning, with snow continuing into the better part of Thanksgiving Day. When all is said and done, totals will likely exceed a foot across the Tug Hill region. Have expanded accumulations into the northern Adirondacks cntys of Herkimer/Hamilton where locally 6-12 possible... with lighter advisory amounts to the east. Will re-assess this potential with next update.

...LTE

Western PA update...

Lake effect and upslope snows continue in the Laurel Highlands as a result of the backlash effects of the storm that continues to affect the Northeast. Winter weather advisories in the Laurel Highland counties of Cambria, Somerset, and Fayette counties have been upgraded to winter storm warnings. The highest total amounts for this event are to occur to the west of US 219, where 8-12 inches with isolated higher amounts are possible in the ridges. Additional snowfall is possible thru Wednesday into Thursday morning in these areas as well, so more updates to come.

...MAG

Winter Storm Impacting the Interior Northeast...

A moderate to locally heavy snow event is underway across a good chunk of the interior northeast. Latest radar shows snow...mixed with rain in spots... stretching from southwest Pennsylvania to the north country of New York. Most areas will see anywhere from 1-4", with higher elevations of NY/NH/ME seeing in excess of 6", with local spots of up to 12" possible by Tuesday Afternoon across NY, and Wednesday morning across northern New England.

Behind the departing low pressure, winds will back to the west and once again lead to the onset of lake effect snow across the typical snow belt of Northwest PA and far western NY. Up to a foot is possible by Wednesday morning, with snow continuing on the day Wednesday. Due to on going short term conditions, will re-evaluate the lake effect potential beyond Wednesday morning with later update.

...LTE

Lake Effect Snow Winding down...

Lake effect snow is diminishing in intensity and coverage off Lake Erie and Ontario. Based on current radar, some light snow continues over western NY... with localized accumulations of 2-4" possible across northern Cattaragus/Allegany/southern Erie cntys.

Activity off Ontario has dwindled substantially thru the evening hours, and feel only minimal accumulations of up to 2" will be observed immediately downwind into Oswego cnty thru the morning hours where Advisory remains in effect until 10AM, however would expect this to be dropped early.

...LTE

Significant Lake Snows to last thru Sunday Morning

Friday Morning update...

Significant Lake Effect snow event is underway across the Lake Erie snowbelt of western NY and northwest PA. Widespread areas of 6-12" will be found across a good chunk of western PA in the I-79/80/86 corridor. Across Chautauqua/Erie/Crawford/Warren/Venango counties, expecting totals to be in the 1-2' range. Current thinking continues to suggest that 6-12" a good bet across the Laurel Ridge and northern Blue Ridge of PA/MD/WV.

...MAG/LTE

Downwind of Lake Ontario, things should begin to get underway by late morning, with snow quickly becoming hvy at times by early afternoon with snowfall rates in the 1-2" range. Widespread 6-12" amounts will be found across a large portion of central NY in favored lake zones across the I-90/81 corridor. Travel in and around Greater Syracuse will be hazardous throughout this afternoon and lasting into the overnight hours. Highest amounts will be centered across southwestern Oswego, northern Cayuga, central Onondaga/Madison counties where totals could easily exceed a foot by Sunday morning. Across the Finger Lake counties and Southern Tier, lake effect snows will also be present with added enhancement from the Finger Lakes of Cayuga/Seneca especially. This will result in localized accumulations of 2-6" in these areas. Will also need to watch the northern Tier of Pa into Bradford/Susquehanna counties for possible advisory level snowfall, and have decided to go with 2-6" into far northern portions of the counties. Across the northern Catskills in Otsego county, this is will be a tricky call. Expect to see the Lake Ontario snow band setup in very close proximity and would not be surprised to see amounts of 5-8" into extreme northwestern Otsego cnty...will need to watch this closely.

...LTE

Update: Lake Effect Snow Event

Morning update...

Clipper quickly making its way to east... with light snow falling in it's wake across southern NY and most of Pennsylvania this morning, some of which is locally heavy at times. Behind the departing system, expecting the lake effect machine to begin cranking by this evening and continuing into the Friday Night. Heaviest amounts will be found across the Chautauqua Ridge of western NY and into northwest PA, where upwards of a foot are expected by Friday Evening. Travel along the NYS Thruway between Buffalo and Erie will be a slow go tonight and Friday, with similar conditions expected across I-79, I-80, and I-86. To the south, the Laurel Highlands will also recieve significant accumulations thru Friday, where up to a foot is possible in locally heavier bands.

Areas downwind of Lake Ontario across xtreme eastern Wayne/Cayuga, northern Cortland/Chenango, southwestern Oswego/Oneida, Onondaga, and Madison Cntys will be hit hardest where up to a foot is expected by late Friday Evening in the most persistent bands. Travel in and around the Syracuse Metro will be highly impacted. Across Tompkinswill see Expect to see some lake enhancement from the Finger Lakes, especially Cayuga and Seneca. This will likely result in advisory level snowfall across Tompkins and southern Cortland Cntys, with lower accumulations across Schuyler, Chemung, Tioga, and Broome cntys. Further east into Otsego cnty, cannot be ruled out that extreme northwestern part of cnty cud get clipped from the main band for atleast a period of several hours...will need to watch where primary band sets up if higher accumulations may be reached.

...LTE

Clipper To Usher in More Significant Lake Effect

Discussion

In the last few days folks in the favored regions downwind of the lakes have been racking up the snow in this very early season cold air outbreak. The local resorts in my area are already making snow, although Seven Springs hasn't needed much help..picking up 10 inches in the last few days according to their website.

Tonight currently there is a clipper that is dropping out of the Great Lakes with some light snow. Light in intensity.. but also very light in terms of snow/water equivalent ratio as well. With the very cold air in place and ideal fluff factor conditions in place, some areas that see some steady snow from the initial system could see ratios of 20:1+! So a couple of inches could fall primarily in western NY and NW PA. The real show starts in the wake of the clipper as it reinforces the cold and sends a renewed cold NW flow over the lakes. The alignment is great for seeing heavy snow pile up in Northwest PA and the Laurel HIghlands in Western PA. Higher elevations there could see the upper end of 6-12 inches.

Across upstate NY, potential exists for this event to yield the heaviest snows thus far for the early winter season. Typical snow belt regions downwind of Lakes Erie/Ontario, especially across the Tug Hill region of central NY and Chautauqua Ridge of western NY, expecting 6-12" to have fallen by Friday evening, with snow continuing into the early part of the Weekend. Will monitor this situation closely, and re-evaluate accumulation potential for Friday Night and Saturday later on.
Lake Effect and Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the aforementioned regions. More coming as the event unfolds.

...MAG/LTE