Update on Ongoing Clipper...

Latest guidance suggests a slight southward trend to the track of the shortwave as it trudges across the Commonwealth. Therefore, we have decided to raise totals across eastern part of the Tr-State as well across southeastern New England. On average, we still expect a widespread advisory event for most, with locally up to 8-10" in Sern New England where some rather intense banding is expected to setup as the the Clipper intesifies offshore Wednesday. Elsewhere back to the west... widespread 2-6" amounts are likely with some isolated higher amounts in the Catskills/Berkshires/Litchfield Hills.

...LTE

Upcoming Mid-week Clipper System

Using mostly a GFS/GEFS blend...we are expecting a widespread advisory level snowfall spanning roughly between I-80/I-90 from Wrn NY/PA thru East Cntrl New England. Good Omega/fluff factor will yield favorable snow ratio's, particularly across PA/NY, where ratios should be in the 15-20:1 range. Using this in combination with an expected qpf field ranging from .1-.35, snow amounts should range from 2-6". Highest amounts of up to 6" will best be found in the higher terrain such as the Catskills/ northern Poconos/ southern Adirondacks/ Berkshires/ southern Greens. Other area will be extreme interior southeastern New England where some added Ocean enhancement is possible as the shortwave pushes offshore and undergoes intensification as it rapidly departs into the open waters.

We may be extending advisory snows south a tad across PA with this afternoon's reassessment, but overall, confidence is pretty high for this event to verify as shown.

...LTE

Major Nor' Easter to affect the Region...

Morning Update: Previous forecast remains in tact overall. Most noticeable difference was to pull back on accums. across western/central/southeastern Pennsylvania. Precipitation associated with primary low has been very disorganized overnight here producing only very minor accums, so feel threat of seeing anything more than 2 or 3" has diminished.

As for the main show set to unfold later this afternoon thru Monday morning. Latest model guidance suggest the coastal will take shape and develop a bit further east than previous runs. With this in mind...have cut back on the sig snow accums across the western Catskills and relegated any chance to receiving wrng snow to far eastern portions of Delaware/Otsego cntys in NY.

In turn, this slight eastward shift will likely bring higher totals into the immediate Boston metro area. Therefore, have bumped totals up here a bit to 3-6". Have also brought heaviest axis of snowfall closer to the coast along downeast Maine. More on this area in a moment.

Last area of adjustment... have increased totals across the Tug Hill/northern Adirondacks due to expected lake enhancement/effect from Ontario...especially tonight as winds increase out of the west/northwest as low pressure bombs out along the New England coast.

Across central/northern New England... buckle up and make sure your tray tables are in their upright and locked positions. A classic Nor' Easter will be affecting our weather over the next 36 hours in the form of heavy snow/high winds/dangerous wind chills with blizzard conditions likely later this evening/overnight as the storm reaches the Gulf of Maine. Along the coast...the Low Pressure may track just close enough to bring the chance of sleet across the immediate coastline. This will limit accumulations somewhat...but on average still expecting 8-12". Across interior...10-20" is likely stretching from northern VT thru most of NH/ME...with highest totals in the northern mtns. of NH/interior ME. Localized accumulations could exceed this amount. Winds will only throw fuel on the fire as system really begins to crank up as it chugs off to the northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. Widespread blowing snow will continue well into Monday even after snow has ended. This will make travel extremely difficult if not impossible...especially on secondary roads. Power outages also expected...especially across Maine. Bottomline... any outdoor activity would be strongly discouraged. Best advice would be to stay inside, fetch a bowl of New England Clam Chowder, and keep warm by the fireplace!

...LTE

Significant Winter Storm likely Tonight-Monday...

As said yesterday, we feel this is going to be a widespread advisory event along/east of I-79/west of I-95/south of I-90. For most part...2-6" will be the general rule. 2-4" most likely across Pennsylvania..with 3-6" across areas of the Northern Tier of PA and south of I-90. Highest amounts closest to 6" will be in the Pocono mtns. northeast into the western Catskills. Only exceptions will be across the lake effect snow belts off Lake Erie/Ontario...where lake enhancement/effect will help to boost totals. May be expanding higher totals here...as Lake effect potential will be increasing overnight Sunday. Other is the Catskills mtns. where we think 5-10" is a possible...especially across the eastern half of the mountains into western Ulster/Greene/Schoharie cntys.

Across New England...this has the makings to be a classic Nor' Easter. Heavy snow/high winds will reign down on interior New England Sunday Night into Monday as coastal Low begins to bomb out along/or just of the Maine coast. Along the Massachusetts coast...specifically the southern Cape, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard... could start as snow before changing over to rain. Biggest threat there will likely be the winds. For now, we are playing conservative along the shore counties of Maine...where we think a general 6-10 is most likely at this time, though we will be open to possible expansion of higher totals with next update later this Evening. Further north/west from the mountains of eastern VT/western-northern NH/northwest Maine... a solid 10+ looks likely with possible blizzard conditions...especially across interior Maine.

...LTE

First storm beginning to wind down; Next Storm on the Horizon

Our snowmaker from Friday is beginning to wind down...with only some deform precip located over VT/NH/southwest Maine left. Storm rapidly pushing off shore and out to sea. In it's wake, Saturday should be a nice day across much of the Northeast before clouds beginning advancing northward from the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the next system slated to affect the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Sunday and Monday.

At the present time... it appears likely that many areas from Pennsylvania to Maine will see wintry precip from this in the form snow. ATTM, this looks to be mainly a widespread advisory event along/west of I-95/east of I-79/south of I-90. This is in response to a Double-barrel Low pressure system advancing northeast up thru the Ohio Valley before handing off its energy and forming a Low Pressure along the Delmarva coast. From there it will track northeast to a position near Cape Cod Sunday night.

As of right now...current guidance suggests along and north/east of I-87/I-90 corridor (Capital District and points north/east) stand the best chance for significant snow in excess of 7". As Low pressure reaches Cape Cod...it is forecasted to deepen rapidly and undergo bombogenesis as it tracks into the Gulf of Maine by Monday. This will deliver a widespread moderate-heavy snowfall across central/northern New England before storm exits into the Canadian Maritimes. Along with the snow... very strong winds will also plague the region resulting in near blizzard conditions across the interior. Coastal sections of New England from Boston thru downeast Maine will be a close call regarding whether significant snow will reach the coastline. 0z NAM brought the Low pressure ashore into southeast MA and into central Maine. This track would yield a snow to rain scenario across much of southeast MA/downeast Maine. It should be said that the final storm track is not set in stone... which will determine how much snow coastal sections of Massachusetts/Maine see. More on this storm Saturday Morning. Stay Tuned.

...LTE

Update on Impending Winter Storm...

Morning Update: Unfortunately have made more adjustments than we planned on when we issued our 1st map Thursday Evening. Safe to say the bust potential is on the increase and further adjustments may be warranted. For now, have bumped up ending time by 3 hours to 9AM Saturday. Second, have cut back on 10-14" swath significantly, and reserved it to the Catskills region of NY and Wayne county PA. Do to fast progression of the system, we feel widespread threat for 12"+ has decreased and will be more isolated in nature. Have also refined accumulation range a tad...going with T-2/2-6 instead of T-3/3-7. Other change is to bring heavier snows a tad to the north across NY/New England.

As stated... this may need further adjustment... and we are concerned for areas south of I-80 seeing more mixing than was originally thought, which could really cut into snowfall amounts. Something that bears watching. For now, will forego any major overhaul and let previous forecast (outside of aforementioned adjustments) run thru next update which should be later this morning.

Observations out of the Midwest seem to be defying what models showed on tonights run in terms of thermal profiles. It appears mixing is being observed much further north than what was originally advertised by 0z models. Should this translate eastward...we may be in trouble in terms of southward extent of significant snow. We shall see.

...LTE

Major Winter Storm set to move into the Northeast...

Thursday Evening Update: Potent storm system is now getting it's act together across the Midwest, and move east spreading snow into western PA/NY later tonight and Friday morning. During the day Friday, snow should really get going across northern PA/southern NY by late morning... and across the Tri-state/western New England by early afternoon. Storm should begin to pull out into the Atlantic Saturday Morning shutting off precip over eastern New England. Significant snow accumulations are likely across a large chunk of the Northeast.

Across New York/Pennsylvania...Snow fall rates could exceed 1"/hr. cross northern-eastern PA/southern-eastern NY/western New England during Friday afternoon/evening. Heaviest axis of snow should be centered across the Twin Tiers of NY/PA eastward into Catskills/Berkshires/Litchfield-Worcester Hills. Widespread snowfall totals will likely be in the 10-14" range in these areas by the time tapers off. Elsewhere... expecting a widespread area of 6-12" along I-90 from Buffalo-Syracuse-Albany... as well as northern/eastern PA primarily along and north of I-80, and east of I-81.

Across the Tri-State...very tough call in terms of NYC Metro/L.I. ATTM, still appears likely that some mixing will take place with an outside chance of even a changeover to sleet/rain. For this reason... will keep heaviest snows north/west of I-95 for the time being and re-evaluate after 0z runs come in.

Across New England... this will likely be an all snow event... even to the shores of the Long Island Sound. Widespread accumulations of 6-12" are likely...with highest amounts across northern CT/western-central MA in the higher terrain. Winds will also become a bigger player as the storm moves off the coast, especially across southeast MA/Rhode Island/western CT. This will lead to significant blowing/drifting of snow on Friday Night/Saturday Morning.

...LTE

Major Winter Storm likely across the Northeast to end the workweek...

With current storm winding down across Maine... we will be turning our attention to the next winter storm set to arrive late Thursday ending on Saturday. At the present time, fairly good model consesus in terms of QPF and track...which looks to be between I-86/I-80. With High Pressure parked to the north in southern Canada... this will likely yield a significant snowstorm across north central/eastern PA/upstate NY/eastward into New England... with upwards of a foot possible in many areas...especially between I-86/I-90. Lesser amounts to the south and east where more mixed precip is likely. However...storm track is still not set in stone, and a shift to the north or south will have big influence on precip-type and amounts. Stay tuned.

...LTE

Winter Storm underway across the Northeast...

Afternoon Update: Just some minor tweaks with this afternoon's package. We have now shifted advisory level snowfall further north into far northern Maine/New York where previous update had 1-3". Have also elected to slightly downgrade expected snow totals from 3-7" to 3-6". Outside of that...forecast remains unchanged. See Previous discussion below.

...LTE

Another Winter Storm to Impact the Northeast...

Synopsis...
Went with a GFS/NAM/SREF blend for this forecast. Storm system developing over the Midwest will push eastward during the day today spreading a wintry mix across the northern Mid-Atlantic region during the Afternoon hours lasting into tonight. Later this Evening, snow should breakout across New York state into western New England. By Wednesday morning, storm system should be making its way toward the coast, where some redevelopment is expected. This will bring moderate snow accumulations to much of Maine during the day Wednesday into Wednesday Evening before rapidly moving off to the northeast.

...LTE

Northern Mid-Atlantic...
All areas should start out as snow...locally mdt-hvy at times, across the southern half of Pennsylvania and northern portions of WV,VA, MD into western NJ. Eventually, warmer air should sneak into the upper levels and allow sleet to begin mixing in, before a change to mostly sleet/FzRa is expected. Prior to the changeover, we believe there will be a large area of 2-5" spanning from the Laurel Highlands north and east into the Northern Tier and NErn PA. We expect valley locals in swrn/sern PA to experience a quicker changeover to sleet/FzRa, thus keeping snow/sleet totals under 3" for the most part. As far as ice potential goes, we expect anywhere from .1-.3" ice accretion, with highest accretion in the Shenendoah/Ohio/Susquehanna Valleys. Mainly rain expected along and east of I-95 from Baltimore/DC thru central NJ.

...LTE

New York/New England...
Snow should begin to move into wrn/cntrl NY this evening...becoming locally mdt-hvy at times during the first part of the overnight before sleet begins to mix in...especially across the Southern Tier and Hudson River Valley. Highest amounts should be along the NYS Thruway (I-90), where little in the way of mixing is forecasted. This shud keep snow the predominate form of precip thruout the duration of the storm, thus have forecasted 3-7" here. Across NYC metro/southern New England...snow should start, but quickly become mixed with and change to sleet before changing to rain overnight. Only around a Trace-1" is expected here, mainly along and north/west of I-95. As storm pushes off the coastline Wednesday Morning, some redevelopment is expected as snow will be affecting much of interior New England. As storm begins to rapidly lift off to the northeast, snow should wind down considerably by Wednesday Afternoon. Total accumulations should range from 2-5"...highest amounts inland away from the coast.

...LTE

Winter Storm Continues across Interior Northeast...

Update as of 5:45PM...Just some minor tweaks to the current forecast. First is too downgrade extreme northern/northwestern New England and keep average totals in the 6-12" range as it is becoming increasingly eveident that significant mixing will make inroads further north and west than previously thought. One other tweak was to bring advisory level snowfall a tad to the south across the Laurel Ridge...stretching just over the Mason-Dixon line into western MD. Outside of that, rest of forecast will go unchanged.

...LTE

Major Winter Storm underway across the Northeast...

Powerful Low pressure beginning to lift north from the Southeast U.S. will bring significant winter weather thru much of the interior Northeast today and Friday. Precip type will stay mainly rain along and east of I-81 from Maryland up to I-78 in the lower Susq. Valley of PA, and northward along and east of I-95 to Boston. Ice will be a problem into the southern Poconos east-northeast into the southern Catskills on over into southwestern New England, where up to 1" of ice...locally higher amounts can be found, especially in the higher terrain. Widespread power outages likely in the southern Catskills and interior central New England.

Regarding snowfall potential...
After much deliberation... We have come to a solution as far as snowfall is concerned that we believe is most reasonable at the present time. That said, there are a few problematic areas that may need further adjusting that unfortunately may not be fully resolved until storm is on doorstep or occurring due to complexity of the situation.

First area is across central PA associated more with tonights evolution. Although mid and upper air temps look marginal for mostly snow, we believe there is enough potential for advisory level snowfall across the Laurel Ridge increasing to as much as 6-8" across the mountains of the central northern Tier along the NY border.

Second area is across northern NY with regard to how far significant precip can advance to north and west, as here anything that falls will likely be all snow and a significant amount. ATTM, we decided against bringing higher totals to the southern Adirondacks but will keep a close eye on this, but potential for some areas to see 12" looks possible. Across the mountains of northern New England, we think this area is prime for the heaviest snows, especially across extreme western Maine. Great snow ratios and expected minimal sleet incursion should yield a heavy blanket on the folks in this region. That said, if more mixing occurs than previously expected, snow amounts will need to be lowered accordingly.

Last item is how far east do backside snows accumulate. We think best shot to see any accumulation will be along and west of I-81 south of Mason/Dixon and up to I-78. From there we think accumulations stay west of I-95 up into New England...despite an expected changeover to snow showers/flurries all the way to the coast.

...MAG/LTE

12z GFS lights up the Northeast

The GFS at 12z has suddenly come on board with a slower but phased solution for the much talked about late week storm that rides up the coast and provides a shot for a widespread snow event for alot of folks. It's one run, but it has some support in the SREF means. Will see how the Euro pans out later on.





...MAG

Clipper rolls thru; Lake Effect snow to follow...

Due to timing constraints, have opted to follow NWS forecast product closely this update concerning the Clipper System and trailing lake effect snows, with only some minor tweaks.

Concerning the Clipper... per latest radar, first batch of precip about to make its way offshore with many areas reporting light snow with upwards of a coating as this moved thru, with rain mixing in aross the immediate coast. Final batch of precip is now entering western PA and will move thru during the overnight, producing another coating to an inch in most places from western PA to the coastal plain. One other noticeable area of snow was across the western half of upstate NY, where light to moderate snow was falling. Expecting widespread trace-1" in this area, with up to 2" in the heavier bands. This batch of precip is progged to continue off to the east-northeast into western New England during the overnight hours.

Other concern is across the eastern half of Maine, where latest radar showing some enhanced banding activity affecting the area. Have followed closely with NWS forecast, and issued a swath of 3-7" across this area...with heaviest accumulations of up to 7" across the far east on the Canadian border and lesser amounts of around 3" along the coastline.

Concerning lake effect potential: Have also stayed close to NWS forecast on this potential, with heaviest snows southeast of Lake Erie. Do to expected short duration of the event, total snowfall totals look to remain below the 12" mark, with mostly advisory level accumulations. Off lake Ontario... this looks to be a solid advisory event here as well, with highest totals across the Tug Hill where up to 7" is possible. Elsewhere across north central NY, a general 2-5" looks to be a good bet.

Behind frontal passage on Sunday...bitterly cold temperatures look to be on tap for overnight Sunday into Monday. It will be blustery with lows ranging from the teens and 20's across along the coast, to single digits inland. Wind chills will approach advisory criteria overnight Sunday into Monday morning across the interior northeast, especially interior New England and northern NY.

Next Week: Cold spell will be short-lived however as next system approaches region from the southwest on Tuesday bringing mixed precip and rain to much of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast before changing to all rain by Wednesday. Behind this system, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to a possible coastal storm to impact atleast a portion of the area by the end of the workweek. At any rate, upcoming week looks to be quite active. Will be taking a closer look at mid-week storm with next update.

...LTE

Winter Storm Beginning to Wind Down...

Morning Update...

Quick and final update on the storm this morning as system begins to wind up and push north into Canada. Last of the advisories have been dropped or allowed to expire this shift across upstate New York and western New England. Per latest radar, Back edge of precip rapidly moving off to the north and east thru New York with still some mixing going on across the highest peaks of the Adirondacks with all other sites reporting rain at this time where precip is falling. Several reports of 2-4" thus far across the Adirondacks/Greens of NY/VT, with a T-1" being reported across most valley locals of eastern/northern NY.

Into northern New Hampshire and much of Maine, steadier precip was still falling, especially across the northwestern half of Maine, with the backedge currently across NY still to move thru. Latest radar shows much of the precip falling as a mix across central/northern Maine, with snow confined to the far north. For this reason, feel another inch or two is still possible across interior sections thru noon today, especially across the northwestern half of the state and higher terrain. Several reports of over 3" across the western mtns of Aroostook cnty as of late Sunday evening... so total snowfall will likely end up in the 4-5" range in this area.

Behind departing system, a brief episode of Lake Effect snows off Lakes Erie and Ontario beginning this evening and lasting into the better part of Tuesday. Lake Effect Snow Advisories have been hoisted to the east-northeast of both lakes for upwards of 8" in the most persistent snow bands. Will re-assess this event later this morning or early afternoon.

...LTE

Winter Storm continues across the interior Northeast...

Evening Update:

New York/New England...
Based on current radar, appears I-90 is now snow vs. mix line, with hills/mountains to the south experiencing a rain/sleet/freezing rain mix, with primarily rain in valley locals. North of I-90, snow appears to be the predominate p-type, except in the Mohawk Valley where mostly rain is falling, with some mixing in spots. Based on this, will continue to forecast 2-6" across the Adirondack mtn. region thru tonite and into the first part of Monday morning.

Other change is across central New England where cold air has been stubborn to budge, particularly across the hills of northern CT and central MA. For this reason, will expand area of T-2" across this area to account for mixing where up to an inch of snow/sleet is possible, mainly over the higher terrain.

...LTE

Northern Mid-Atlantic...
Current radar shows most of area has warmed above freezing, and thus precip was rain across large majority of region. Only places left where temps remain aob freezing were across the Laurel Highlands, northwest mtns., and Pocono mtns. In these areas, mixing will continue to occur thru the evening. I expect all areas to change to rain by or shortly after midnight, resulting in a end to the icing threat.

...LTE

Evening Update On Impending Storm...

After re-assessing, will forego any changes to forecast with this update and keep things as is for now. Chances of anyone seeing >6" appears to be very slim at this point. Previous Update below...

Northern Mid-Atlantic...

Expecting precipitation to begin as a period of snow or snow/sleet for many locations along/west of I-81 and north of I-80 before a changeover to rain occurs. Changeover will occur first in valley locals and gradually expand northward with the northwest mtns. that last place to experience a changeover. Here, advisory level snow amounts are certainly possible and have issued a swath of 3-6" across this area.

Elsewhere, a T-3" should be all that comes about from this storm with regards to snowfall, but that said, travel conditions will still be hazardous for a time until precip changes to all liquid. Areas along and east of I-81 to I-80 and over to the coast should begin as rain from the start, with a possible brief onset of some snow or sleet across the Susquehanna River Valley not out of the question, but feel this threat is minimal and any wintry precip should quickly transition to rain.

...LTE

New York/New England...

Precipitation should begin to overspread southern New York by noon Sunday, starting as a snow/sleet mixture. Rain will begin mixing in and eventually a changeover to all rain should occur from south-north, beginning in the valleys. Exception will be across the mtns. of the western Southern Tier and the Catskills of central NY where a prolonged period of snow/sleet is possible given the elevation, so have issued a swath of 3-6" to cover these areas. Other trouble spot will be across the Adirondack Mtns. of the north country, where it is not out of the question that low end warning amounts could be reached, but for now, will keep snow amounts in the advisory range and re-assess with later update.

Across the mtns. of northern New England, again this area will need to be monitored for a possible upgrade to snow amounts, but for now, will start out with 3-6" across the higher terrain. Couple limiting factors are the mixing potential, and marginal temperatures yielding to cut down on snow ratios. Whether or not these can be overcome to produce a significant snowfall will be a difficult challenge, but threat does exist and will need to be monitored.

Across the Tri-state northward across the Hudson River Valley, rain will be the predominate precip type. Tricky call across the immediate Capital Ditrict with regards to whether or not any snow accumulation will be observed, and for now have sued Albany as a cutoff point across the Hudson River Valley, with points south starting as a brief mixture before changing over to rain, with no accumulation. The same will go for the New England coastline along the plain where rain will likely keep any wintry threat virtually nil.

...LTE

Update on Winter Storm for Sunday-Tuesday...

Northern Mid-Atlantic...

Expecting precipitation to begin as a period of snow or snow/sleet for many locations along/west of I-81 and north of I-80 before a changeover to rain occurs. Changeover will occur first in valley locals and gradually expand northward with the northwest mtns. that last place to experience a changeover. Here, advisory level snow amounts are certainly possible and have issued a swath of 3-6" across this area.

Elsewhere, a T-3" should be all that comes about from this storm with regards to snowfall, but that said, travel conditions will still be hazardous for a time until precip changes to all liquid. Areas along and east of I-81 to I-80 and over to the coast should begin as rain from the start, with a possible brief onset of some snow or sleet across the Susquehanna River Valley not out of the question, but feel this threat is minimal and any wintry precip should quickly transition to rain.

...LTE

New York/New England...

Precipitation should begin to overspread southern New York by noon Sunday, starting as a snow/sleet mixture. Rain will begin mixing in and eventually a changeover to all rain should occur from south-north, beginning in the valleys. Exception will be across the mtns. of the western Southern Tier and the Catskills of central NY where a prolonged period of snow/sleet is possible given the elevation, so have issued a swath of 3-6" to cover these areas. Other trouble spot will be across the Adirondack Mtns. of the north country, where it is not out of the question that low end warning amounts could be reached, but for now, will keep snow amounts in the advisory range and re-assess with later update.

Across the mtns. of northern New England, again this area will need to be monitored for a possible upgrade to snow amounts, but for now, will start out with 3-6" across the higher terrain. Couple limiting factors are the mixing potential, and marginal temperatures yielding to cut down on snow ratios. Whether or not these can be overcome to produce a significant snowfall will be a difficult challenge, but threat does exist and will need to be monitored.

Across the Tri-state northward across the Hudson River Valley, rain will be the predominate precip type. Tricky call across the immediate Capital Ditrict with regards to whether or not any snow accumulation will be observed, and for now have sued Albany as a cutoff point across the Hudson River Valley, with points south starting as a brief mixture before changing over to rain, with no accumulation. The same will go for the New England coastline along the plain where rain will likely keep any wintry threat virtually nil.

...LTE

Wintry mess to round out the Holiday weekend...

Evening Update:

Its appearing more and more likely like a widespread wintry mix event across much of the interior M-A and N-E as opposed to a traditional snowstorm. Guidance seems to be settling on a double-barrel style synoptic event featuring a primary low developing and lifting north-northeast out of the TN River Valley Saturday Evening. As Low pressure deepens and makes it way into Ohio, it will draw warmer air north bound changing wintry precip over to plain rain south-north for many areas, beginning in the valleys.

Areas along and east of I-81 from northern VA to the I-78 corridor in the Susquehanna River Valley over to I-95 and points north thru the lower Hudson River Valley to the Maine coastline shud be all rain from the start, with chances of any significant wintry precip being virtually nil.

I feel only areas at this point with decent shot at seeing any significant snowfall from this will be the Adirondack Mtn. region of northern New York and the mountains of western Maine into extreme northern Vermont/New Hampshire. Like most other areas, Snow shud be the predominant precip to start...how long the precip remains snow before becoming mixed with sleet is the question. Feel there is a shot at reaching low end warning accumulations in these regions, but will be a challenge. Across northern NY, even a changeover to rain cannot be ruled out, which wud obviously cut down on snow amounts. Across northern New England, a changeover to rain is least likely here, especially over the higher terrain of northern VT/NH and western sections of ME. Significant snow/sleet accumulations are certainly possible across these regions, and will be re-evaluated after 0z model data can be analyzed.

Elsewhere across the remainder of the interior, a sloppy wintry mess is most probable before precip changes over to all rain. Expecting this to be widespread Advisory event with the exception being in the aforementioned areas.

Potent Storm to Affect the Northeast Sunday into Tuesday...

A powerful storm system is progged to affect the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast beginning Sunday and lasting into Tuesday. Many questions have still yet to be resolved after tonights 0z model package, and if anything, more uncertainty exists now than 24 hours ago. Models... in particular the UKMET...ECMWF, have trended well west and are showing a track thru western PA and NY which would yield a much wetter vs. whiter scenario for many across the M-A and N-E. GFS lies a bit east of this, with a track along the Appalachin mtns., this however would be least likely as storm tracks generally follow one side or the other. GEFS suite furthest east with a track along or just west of I-95.

ATTM... will go with a GFS/GEFS blend and side with a track that is just inland from I-95 across the coastal Plain. This wud result in an all rain event along and east of I-95 from Washington/Baltimore into the eastern half of New England. A wintry poupourri would affect areas along I-81 north of Harrisburg to Binghamton to Syracuse and up to the Champlain River Valley and the western half of New England. Best chance for predominantly snow would be confined to the mtns of central and western PA northward into the Finger Lake region of NY.

Again, to re-emphasize there remains considerable uncertainty with regard to the eventual evolution of this complex storm system, and a slight jog in the track to the east or west will greatly determine precip types and amounts. Please continue to check back here for the latest regarding this possible winter storm.

...LTE

Lake Effect Snow Continues...

Lake Effect snow continues to pile up east of Lake Ontario. Current Radar shows heaviest snows focused over the southern half of Jefferson cnty into western Lewis cnty. Snowfall rates will be 1-2"/hour in the heaviest core of snow. One report of 12" in Adams, NY out of central Jefferson cnty, see no reason why another 6-12" cant be achieved, and thus will continue to forecast another 6-12 across this area thru this afternoon. Those commuting on I-81 between Oswego/Jefferson line and Watertown will need to use extreme caution and prepare for very poor visibilities.

Off Lake Erie... snow has diminished considerably, with just some snow showers affecting the Genessee Valley per latest Radar. Accumulations should range from a Trace to as much as an inch or two thru this morning.

Latest model data suggest a potential Nor' Easter to affect much of the northeast in the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe, however much uncertainty exists with regard to eventual storm track which will determine precip type and amount. At this time, it appears interior portions of the northeast stand the best chance to see snow. Will continue to monitor this closely, and further address this with next update.

...LTE

Winter Storm Continues; Lake Effect Snow Ongoing...

Low Pressure continues to dump snow across interior New England this evening, with up to a foot possible along the mountains of interior Oxford/Franklin/Somerset/Piscataquis cntys. Rain and sleet will mix in at times across the valleys, with rain along the coast. Winds will also be gusting quite high along the immediate coast as low pressure moves inland. Bottomline... expecting a nasty night across western Maine with snow...heavy at times... and very blustery conditions lasting into the day on Wednesday.

...LTE

Lake Effect Potential...

Off Lake Ontario... as winds continue to back from the west, and eventually southwest, lake effect plumes should develop east/northeast of Lake Ontario overnight lasting into the morning. A general 2-6" is expected before the snow diminishes. However... expecting to see redevelopment by Wednesday evening, with significant snows possible. Greatest impacted area appears to be the Tug Hill region of northern Oswego/central Lewis into southern Jefferson cnty. Potential exists for up to a foot by early Thursday morning, with snow continuing into the better part of Thanksgiving Day. When all is said and done, totals will likely exceed a foot across the Tug Hill region. Have expanded accumulations into the northern Adirondacks cntys of Herkimer/Hamilton where locally 6-12 possible... with lighter advisory amounts to the east. Will re-assess this potential with next update.

...LTE

Western PA update...

Lake effect and upslope snows continue in the Laurel Highlands as a result of the backlash effects of the storm that continues to affect the Northeast. Winter weather advisories in the Laurel Highland counties of Cambria, Somerset, and Fayette counties have been upgraded to winter storm warnings. The highest total amounts for this event are to occur to the west of US 219, where 8-12 inches with isolated higher amounts are possible in the ridges. Additional snowfall is possible thru Wednesday into Thursday morning in these areas as well, so more updates to come.

...MAG

Winter Storm Impacting the Interior Northeast...

A moderate to locally heavy snow event is underway across a good chunk of the interior northeast. Latest radar shows snow...mixed with rain in spots... stretching from southwest Pennsylvania to the north country of New York. Most areas will see anywhere from 1-4", with higher elevations of NY/NH/ME seeing in excess of 6", with local spots of up to 12" possible by Tuesday Afternoon across NY, and Wednesday morning across northern New England.

Behind the departing low pressure, winds will back to the west and once again lead to the onset of lake effect snow across the typical snow belt of Northwest PA and far western NY. Up to a foot is possible by Wednesday morning, with snow continuing on the day Wednesday. Due to on going short term conditions, will re-evaluate the lake effect potential beyond Wednesday morning with later update.

...LTE

Lake Effect Snow Winding down...

Lake effect snow is diminishing in intensity and coverage off Lake Erie and Ontario. Based on current radar, some light snow continues over western NY... with localized accumulations of 2-4" possible across northern Cattaragus/Allegany/southern Erie cntys.

Activity off Ontario has dwindled substantially thru the evening hours, and feel only minimal accumulations of up to 2" will be observed immediately downwind into Oswego cnty thru the morning hours where Advisory remains in effect until 10AM, however would expect this to be dropped early.

...LTE

Significant Lake Snows to last thru Sunday Morning

Friday Morning update...

Significant Lake Effect snow event is underway across the Lake Erie snowbelt of western NY and northwest PA. Widespread areas of 6-12" will be found across a good chunk of western PA in the I-79/80/86 corridor. Across Chautauqua/Erie/Crawford/Warren/Venango counties, expecting totals to be in the 1-2' range. Current thinking continues to suggest that 6-12" a good bet across the Laurel Ridge and northern Blue Ridge of PA/MD/WV.

...MAG/LTE

Downwind of Lake Ontario, things should begin to get underway by late morning, with snow quickly becoming hvy at times by early afternoon with snowfall rates in the 1-2" range. Widespread 6-12" amounts will be found across a large portion of central NY in favored lake zones across the I-90/81 corridor. Travel in and around Greater Syracuse will be hazardous throughout this afternoon and lasting into the overnight hours. Highest amounts will be centered across southwestern Oswego, northern Cayuga, central Onondaga/Madison counties where totals could easily exceed a foot by Sunday morning. Across the Finger Lake counties and Southern Tier, lake effect snows will also be present with added enhancement from the Finger Lakes of Cayuga/Seneca especially. This will result in localized accumulations of 2-6" in these areas. Will also need to watch the northern Tier of Pa into Bradford/Susquehanna counties for possible advisory level snowfall, and have decided to go with 2-6" into far northern portions of the counties. Across the northern Catskills in Otsego county, this is will be a tricky call. Expect to see the Lake Ontario snow band setup in very close proximity and would not be surprised to see amounts of 5-8" into extreme northwestern Otsego cnty...will need to watch this closely.

...LTE

Update: Lake Effect Snow Event

Morning update...

Clipper quickly making its way to east... with light snow falling in it's wake across southern NY and most of Pennsylvania this morning, some of which is locally heavy at times. Behind the departing system, expecting the lake effect machine to begin cranking by this evening and continuing into the Friday Night. Heaviest amounts will be found across the Chautauqua Ridge of western NY and into northwest PA, where upwards of a foot are expected by Friday Evening. Travel along the NYS Thruway between Buffalo and Erie will be a slow go tonight and Friday, with similar conditions expected across I-79, I-80, and I-86. To the south, the Laurel Highlands will also recieve significant accumulations thru Friday, where up to a foot is possible in locally heavier bands.

Areas downwind of Lake Ontario across xtreme eastern Wayne/Cayuga, northern Cortland/Chenango, southwestern Oswego/Oneida, Onondaga, and Madison Cntys will be hit hardest where up to a foot is expected by late Friday Evening in the most persistent bands. Travel in and around the Syracuse Metro will be highly impacted. Across Tompkinswill see Expect to see some lake enhancement from the Finger Lakes, especially Cayuga and Seneca. This will likely result in advisory level snowfall across Tompkins and southern Cortland Cntys, with lower accumulations across Schuyler, Chemung, Tioga, and Broome cntys. Further east into Otsego cnty, cannot be ruled out that extreme northwestern part of cnty cud get clipped from the main band for atleast a period of several hours...will need to watch where primary band sets up if higher accumulations may be reached.

...LTE

Clipper To Usher in More Significant Lake Effect

Discussion

In the last few days folks in the favored regions downwind of the lakes have been racking up the snow in this very early season cold air outbreak. The local resorts in my area are already making snow, although Seven Springs hasn't needed much help..picking up 10 inches in the last few days according to their website.

Tonight currently there is a clipper that is dropping out of the Great Lakes with some light snow. Light in intensity.. but also very light in terms of snow/water equivalent ratio as well. With the very cold air in place and ideal fluff factor conditions in place, some areas that see some steady snow from the initial system could see ratios of 20:1+! So a couple of inches could fall primarily in western NY and NW PA. The real show starts in the wake of the clipper as it reinforces the cold and sends a renewed cold NW flow over the lakes. The alignment is great for seeing heavy snow pile up in Northwest PA and the Laurel HIghlands in Western PA. Higher elevations there could see the upper end of 6-12 inches.

Across upstate NY, potential exists for this event to yield the heaviest snows thus far for the early winter season. Typical snow belt regions downwind of Lakes Erie/Ontario, especially across the Tug Hill region of central NY and Chautauqua Ridge of western NY, expecting 6-12" to have fallen by Friday evening, with snow continuing into the early part of the Weekend. Will monitor this situation closely, and re-evaluate accumulation potential for Friday Night and Saturday later on.
Lake Effect and Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the aforementioned regions. More coming as the event unfolds.

...MAG/LTE

Epic Early Season Nor'Easter Was A Memorable One...

NY/New England…
This storm was one for the record books, an unprecedented storm for this time of year and a high impact event for many across the eastern half of upstate New York and extreme northwestern New England. Many locations experienced their all-time highest or top 5 one day snow total for the month of October. It was a very elevation dependant snowstorm as the highest totals were found across the Catskill, Adirondack, and Green Mountains of NY and VT where more than a foot was common. Highest total reported was across extreme eastern Delaware cnty, NY in the heart of the Catskills with 25.6” reported in the town of Roxbury. Valleys in and around the southern tier and Mohawk Valley averaged a trace-5”… highest across central Oneida, southern Fulton, and Montgomery cntys. North of I-90 and between I-81/I-87, this region was crippled from the heavy wet snow. Widespread 12+ amounts were observed, especially across the Adirondacks, and also several reports exceeded a foot across the Saint Lawrence River Valley into the northern Green mountains of Vermont. Elsewhere, minor snow accumulations were reported in the Berkshire mtns of western Massachusetts and along the immediate lake shore of Ontario. The wind also wreaked havoc on the area, especially in areas that were hit hard by the snow. Many power outages occurred across a good chunk of central, eastern, and northern NY. This led to many road closures, especially in the mtns due to falling trees and power lines.

EGAN...

PA/NJ...
This storm also crippled portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey, specifically the Poconos of Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, and Pike cntys, and hills of Sussex, Hunterdon, Morris Cntys, NJ. In these areas, widespread totals of 8-16" were reported, with the highest amount of 16" reported in Mountain Lake, PA (Luzerne Cnty) and Tobyhanna, PA (Monroe Cnty). Many reports of power outages in these areas due to falling limbs and lines from a combination of snow, wind, and leaves that have yet to fall. Many other areas across southeastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey saw their first accumulation snowfall of the season with this storm.

EGAN...

Winter Storm continues to wallop the Northeast...

Synopsis…
Powerful winter storm continues to affect parts of upstate New York and New England this evening. Low Pressure located over western New England continues to lift north toward the Canadian border with wrap-around moisture still affecting interior parts of the Northeast this evening. Snow should begin to taper off south to north overnight tonight and Wednesday morning leaving blustery conditions and lake effect snow showers across to continue on Wednesday. Moderating temperatures are expected to arrive to finish out the workweek.

EGAN…

PA/NJ…
Precipitation has ended across the area…with blustery conditions in the wake of the departing low. Have received several reports of 12+ across the Pocono mountain region of Carbon and Monroe cntys into the hills of xtreme NW NJ of Sussex cnty. In these areas, some additional power outages are likely, especially across higher elevations, overnight as strong NW winds continue to impact the region. Lake effect snow showers have formed off Lake Erie and are currently impacting parts of western PA... where a T-2" are possible across NW PA exending down to the Laurel ridge.

EGAN…

NY/New England…
Current radar shows most of the precip has tapered across most of southeast New York and southern New England this evening with renegade showers, some locally heavy in and round the NYC Metro and L.I. area with winds backing around to the northwest. Several reports of more than a foot have fallen across the Catskill mountain region. Continuing to see southern edge of deform banding affecting this region, so a couple more inches cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere across south Central New York, steadier precip has ended with some wrap-around snow showers continuing to affect the I-81/88 corridor, and up to a another inch is possible across higher terrain in this area. Further north across the I90 corridor from Syracuse to central Mohawk Valley, rain has changed over to all snow and 2-4” is still possible here, especially over the higher terrain. Across the North Country, strong deform banding will yield snow…heavy at times into the overnight hours before tapering off Wednesday morning. Here, 6-12” can still be expected… with highest amounts across the Adirondack mountain region, with lesser amounts closer to Lake Ontario where warmer temps continue to keep rain in the mix. Into VT, NH, and ME…snow showers will continue to affect the area into Wednesday AM, with highest amounts across the northern Green Mtns. of VT where up to 6” could still accumulate by daybreak.

Winds continue to roar across interior NY and New England with additional scattered to widespread power outages likely during the overnight, especially where heavy snow has already fallen.

Lake effect snow showers should become better organized southeast of Lake Ontario by Wednesday morning, continuing through Thursday morning. Amounts should stay below warning criteria in the 2-4" range, with some local 6" amounts possible.

EGAN…

Early Season Nor' Easter Underway

Synopsis…
An early season Winter Storm is taking shape off the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, and will bring the first accumulating snowfall to interior sections of the northeast during the day on Tuesday and lasting into Tuesday Night. The snow should begin to taper off Wednesday morning as the storm continues to lift off to the north into Canada with blustery conditions lasting into Thursday before temperatures begin to moderate by the weekend.

NY/New England…
Powerful winter storm will be underway across central New York by Tuesday morning lasting into Wednesday morning. Latest obvs from the region have shown KMPO and KBGM have transitioned over to snow and expect this trend to continue across the remainder of low lying elevations by Tuesday morning. By noon Tuesday, believe most locations west of the Hudson River Valley will have made the changeover, with snow… heavy at times continuing into the afternoon hours. By Tuesday evening, snow should begin to lighten up across southern New York with totals ranging from 2-4” across the valleys of the I-81 corridor below 1200ft. with 4-6” across elevations above 1200ft. Highest totals should be in the Catskills where warning criteria will be met. Further north… across I-90 corridor and Mohawk Valley, totals here should average 2-6”. Across the Adirondacks, I feel this area could potentially be crippled where highest totals are believed to be. Accumulations of 10-16”, with local amounts close to 20” are possible by Wednesday morning. Further north across the St. Lawrence Valley, expecting this area to remain below warning accums with 2-6” likely. Over into Western New England, this area is a tougher call as too how much wrap around accumulation will occur. As of now, believe up to 2” is possible over the Berkshires and southern Green Mountains, extending into western Maine. Northern Greens will stand that best shot at seeing advisory level snows as the flow backs around to the northwest, and have indicated this on the map.

Winds are the other story, and will only add to the problem. As low pressure continues to strengthen, winds will be on the increase by late morning across central NY, combined with snowfall rates to create very hazardous travel, especially across higher elevations. Scattered to widespread power outages are likely from the southern tier of NY to the Canadian border east of the NY/VT border where the heaviest snow will be confined.

EGAN...

PA/NJ...

With the storm ongoing and starting to deepen offshore, rain is slowly but surely starting to turn over to snow over the high ground in the Poconos and northern NJ. The PennDOT highway cams show snow on the ground along I-81 near Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.



Additionally, an Accuweather forums user from extreme northern NJ had reported that snow was falling and was sticking to the roads above 900 feet. By later this morning, most of northeastern PA north of I-80 along the I-81 corridor over to NW New Jersey should be seeing snowfall at rather low elevations, perhaps in the 500-1000ft range. Totals should range from 1-3 inches in the valley locations to perhaps as much as 2-6 in the high terrain.

GLUNT...

Early Season Shananigans to Impact the Northeast

First of all I would like to welcome everyone to our new blog that Logan and myself have been planning out over the course of the summer. While we had planned to open the blog up here soon, it certainly wasn't anticipated that it would be just in time for the first potential major nor' easter of the season to shape up.

Heres the setup:


As you can see there is a digging trough coming into the east, this trough will become negatively tilted and fire off a coastal storm that will eventually back into the Northeast potentially resulting in the first significant snowfall of the season for parts of the interior.

More details are going to follow later today, but I am just going to lay out the basics for now. The NAM has been putting out the deeper solution of most models with respect to the storm, backing in a 984mb system into the upstate of New York. The 09z SREF means cover a majority of the Northeast, even into the big cities, though i think that the I-95 corridor and east are highly doubtful. The GFS and Euro have been coming toward the NAM solution.

09z SREF


12z NAM


I am now just starting to see the new 12z GFS, and it is starting to come even more around to the NAM solution, but a bit further to the northeast.

12z GFS at 30 hours


The implications are that this could be a significant early season snowfall for a lot of the interior northeast. The Pocono's, Adirondacks, Catskills, and northward into VT/NH have good chances of seeing snowfall from this. And with the further south and west trend in the models as of late, it may not be at all improbable to see precipitation further south into PA. Temps will be borderline, of course, for snow as it is the end of October after all. It's all going to boil down to how much and how rapidly this storm deepens. Elevation will likely be a factor as well. Follow up later tonight.