12z runs from the GFS/NAM further complicate what already was setup to be a challenging forecast. The RUC also leaves some questions to be answered regarding the severe potential this Afternoon/Evening. Last night I took the conservative route until the RUC and 12z runs came in this Morning before jumping on the bandwagon for enhanced Damaging Wind/Tornado probabilities. If anything, an upgrade in the probabilities with this final forecast package is looking even less warranted. Wouldn’t be surprised if SPC downgraded to a straight 15/15/2 probability Outlook in their upcoming update at 1630z.
This mornings on-going convection/cloud cover across Lower MI/Southern Ontario/Ohio looks to be thwarting and delaying the amount of destabilization that will occur here as well into western PA/NY. This will work against a more significant severe weather episode, E.g. enhanced probabilities greater than 15/15/2. All in all, only minor tweak from last night was to nudge eastern periphery of probabilities a tad to the east, as latest WRF suggests broken line of storms, some of which could be severe and worthy of a 5% Probability, will reach into Central NY/PA toward end of outlook period, or in the 01-04z timeframe.
..EGAN.. 07/25/2009
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