7/17/2009

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook Verification for Thursday, July 17, 2009...

Discussion...
Overall, a pretty successful outcome after sifting thru the severe weather reports. Turns out a 15% probability for both severe wind and severe hail was exactly what was needed, nothing more and nothing less. Obviously, it’s quite easy to see the highest concentration of severe weather was across Eastern NY/Western New England, and not in the immediate tri-state. There was also a noticeable cluster of severe reports was in and around the Philadelphia area.

Breakdown… Total of 48 severe weather reports, 22 wind damage reports and 25 severe hail reports, 2 of which were very large (aoa 2.00” in diameter), and 1 Confirmed Tornado.

Slight Risk captured 46/48 severe weather reports;
15% Severe Wind Probability: Captured 21/22 wind damage reports.
15% Severe Hail Probability: Captured 24/25 severe hail reports.
2% Tornado Probability: Captured 1/1 confirmed tornadoes.

Isolated Severe captured 2/48 severe weather reports;
5% Severe Wind Probability: Captured 1/22 wind damage reports.
5% Severe Hail Probability: Captured 1/25 severe hail reports.

Another Severe Weather Event in the M-A/N-E, and another successful Outlook Verification.

..EGAN.. 07/17/2009




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