Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook for Thursday, July 16, 2009...

Discussion...
0z NAM continues to be aggressive with regard to Thursday's severe setup across a good chunk of the M-A/N-E.

Widespread CAPES of 1500-2750 J/KG, LI -3 to -6, Bulk Shear 35-45 kts, with a bullseye right along and west of the I-81 corridor in PA/NY. Would certainly support an enhanced 30% probability if this solution were 100% correct. While the GFS is the less robust model for a change, a solution involving a blend of 50-100% of the NAM with the GFS still delivers a favorable setup for severe weather over atleast a portion of the forecast area, especially interior areas west of I-95, which is what I said last night and will continue with that theme for now.

The 00z GFS keeps the best LI/CAPE south of the M-D line for the most part, with pockets of good CAPE/LI further north. The NAM paints a similar setup, but favors areas along and west of I-81, particularly in NY/PA. One thing they both do agree on is a potent axis of Bulk Shear across a good chunk of interior areas. By Thursday Afternoon/Evening, the GFS brings 35-50 kts. of bulk shear into much of PA/NY, with highest values across the Twin Tiers of PA/NY. The NAM also has a similar setup, both in values/placement in PA/NY.

All in all, current Day 3 SWO has a good handle on the situation. Will therefore make only little change to previous outlook.

..EGAN.. 07/15/2009