Epic Early Season Nor'Easter Was A Memorable One...

NY/New England…
This storm was one for the record books, an unprecedented storm for this time of year and a high impact event for many across the eastern half of upstate New York and extreme northwestern New England. Many locations experienced their all-time highest or top 5 one day snow total for the month of October. It was a very elevation dependant snowstorm as the highest totals were found across the Catskill, Adirondack, and Green Mountains of NY and VT where more than a foot was common. Highest total reported was across extreme eastern Delaware cnty, NY in the heart of the Catskills with 25.6” reported in the town of Roxbury. Valleys in and around the southern tier and Mohawk Valley averaged a trace-5”… highest across central Oneida, southern Fulton, and Montgomery cntys. North of I-90 and between I-81/I-87, this region was crippled from the heavy wet snow. Widespread 12+ amounts were observed, especially across the Adirondacks, and also several reports exceeded a foot across the Saint Lawrence River Valley into the northern Green mountains of Vermont. Elsewhere, minor snow accumulations were reported in the Berkshire mtns of western Massachusetts and along the immediate lake shore of Ontario. The wind also wreaked havoc on the area, especially in areas that were hit hard by the snow. Many power outages occurred across a good chunk of central, eastern, and northern NY. This led to many road closures, especially in the mtns due to falling trees and power lines.

EGAN...

PA/NJ...
This storm also crippled portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey, specifically the Poconos of Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, and Pike cntys, and hills of Sussex, Hunterdon, Morris Cntys, NJ. In these areas, widespread totals of 8-16" were reported, with the highest amount of 16" reported in Mountain Lake, PA (Luzerne Cnty) and Tobyhanna, PA (Monroe Cnty). Many reports of power outages in these areas due to falling limbs and lines from a combination of snow, wind, and leaves that have yet to fall. Many other areas across southeastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey saw their first accumulation snowfall of the season with this storm.

EGAN...

Winter Storm continues to wallop the Northeast...

Synopsis…
Powerful winter storm continues to affect parts of upstate New York and New England this evening. Low Pressure located over western New England continues to lift north toward the Canadian border with wrap-around moisture still affecting interior parts of the Northeast this evening. Snow should begin to taper off south to north overnight tonight and Wednesday morning leaving blustery conditions and lake effect snow showers across to continue on Wednesday. Moderating temperatures are expected to arrive to finish out the workweek.

EGAN…

PA/NJ…
Precipitation has ended across the area…with blustery conditions in the wake of the departing low. Have received several reports of 12+ across the Pocono mountain region of Carbon and Monroe cntys into the hills of xtreme NW NJ of Sussex cnty. In these areas, some additional power outages are likely, especially across higher elevations, overnight as strong NW winds continue to impact the region. Lake effect snow showers have formed off Lake Erie and are currently impacting parts of western PA... where a T-2" are possible across NW PA exending down to the Laurel ridge.

EGAN…

NY/New England…
Current radar shows most of the precip has tapered across most of southeast New York and southern New England this evening with renegade showers, some locally heavy in and round the NYC Metro and L.I. area with winds backing around to the northwest. Several reports of more than a foot have fallen across the Catskill mountain region. Continuing to see southern edge of deform banding affecting this region, so a couple more inches cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere across south Central New York, steadier precip has ended with some wrap-around snow showers continuing to affect the I-81/88 corridor, and up to a another inch is possible across higher terrain in this area. Further north across the I90 corridor from Syracuse to central Mohawk Valley, rain has changed over to all snow and 2-4” is still possible here, especially over the higher terrain. Across the North Country, strong deform banding will yield snow…heavy at times into the overnight hours before tapering off Wednesday morning. Here, 6-12” can still be expected… with highest amounts across the Adirondack mountain region, with lesser amounts closer to Lake Ontario where warmer temps continue to keep rain in the mix. Into VT, NH, and ME…snow showers will continue to affect the area into Wednesday AM, with highest amounts across the northern Green Mtns. of VT where up to 6” could still accumulate by daybreak.

Winds continue to roar across interior NY and New England with additional scattered to widespread power outages likely during the overnight, especially where heavy snow has already fallen.

Lake effect snow showers should become better organized southeast of Lake Ontario by Wednesday morning, continuing through Thursday morning. Amounts should stay below warning criteria in the 2-4" range, with some local 6" amounts possible.

EGAN…

Early Season Nor' Easter Underway

Synopsis…
An early season Winter Storm is taking shape off the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, and will bring the first accumulating snowfall to interior sections of the northeast during the day on Tuesday and lasting into Tuesday Night. The snow should begin to taper off Wednesday morning as the storm continues to lift off to the north into Canada with blustery conditions lasting into Thursday before temperatures begin to moderate by the weekend.

NY/New England…
Powerful winter storm will be underway across central New York by Tuesday morning lasting into Wednesday morning. Latest obvs from the region have shown KMPO and KBGM have transitioned over to snow and expect this trend to continue across the remainder of low lying elevations by Tuesday morning. By noon Tuesday, believe most locations west of the Hudson River Valley will have made the changeover, with snow… heavy at times continuing into the afternoon hours. By Tuesday evening, snow should begin to lighten up across southern New York with totals ranging from 2-4” across the valleys of the I-81 corridor below 1200ft. with 4-6” across elevations above 1200ft. Highest totals should be in the Catskills where warning criteria will be met. Further north… across I-90 corridor and Mohawk Valley, totals here should average 2-6”. Across the Adirondacks, I feel this area could potentially be crippled where highest totals are believed to be. Accumulations of 10-16”, with local amounts close to 20” are possible by Wednesday morning. Further north across the St. Lawrence Valley, expecting this area to remain below warning accums with 2-6” likely. Over into Western New England, this area is a tougher call as too how much wrap around accumulation will occur. As of now, believe up to 2” is possible over the Berkshires and southern Green Mountains, extending into western Maine. Northern Greens will stand that best shot at seeing advisory level snows as the flow backs around to the northwest, and have indicated this on the map.

Winds are the other story, and will only add to the problem. As low pressure continues to strengthen, winds will be on the increase by late morning across central NY, combined with snowfall rates to create very hazardous travel, especially across higher elevations. Scattered to widespread power outages are likely from the southern tier of NY to the Canadian border east of the NY/VT border where the heaviest snow will be confined.

EGAN...

PA/NJ...

With the storm ongoing and starting to deepen offshore, rain is slowly but surely starting to turn over to snow over the high ground in the Poconos and northern NJ. The PennDOT highway cams show snow on the ground along I-81 near Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.



Additionally, an Accuweather forums user from extreme northern NJ had reported that snow was falling and was sticking to the roads above 900 feet. By later this morning, most of northeastern PA north of I-80 along the I-81 corridor over to NW New Jersey should be seeing snowfall at rather low elevations, perhaps in the 500-1000ft range. Totals should range from 1-3 inches in the valley locations to perhaps as much as 2-6 in the high terrain.

GLUNT...

Early Season Shananigans to Impact the Northeast

First of all I would like to welcome everyone to our new blog that Logan and myself have been planning out over the course of the summer. While we had planned to open the blog up here soon, it certainly wasn't anticipated that it would be just in time for the first potential major nor' easter of the season to shape up.

Heres the setup:


As you can see there is a digging trough coming into the east, this trough will become negatively tilted and fire off a coastal storm that will eventually back into the Northeast potentially resulting in the first significant snowfall of the season for parts of the interior.

More details are going to follow later today, but I am just going to lay out the basics for now. The NAM has been putting out the deeper solution of most models with respect to the storm, backing in a 984mb system into the upstate of New York. The 09z SREF means cover a majority of the Northeast, even into the big cities, though i think that the I-95 corridor and east are highly doubtful. The GFS and Euro have been coming toward the NAM solution.

09z SREF


12z NAM


I am now just starting to see the new 12z GFS, and it is starting to come even more around to the NAM solution, but a bit further to the northeast.

12z GFS at 30 hours


The implications are that this could be a significant early season snowfall for a lot of the interior northeast. The Pocono's, Adirondacks, Catskills, and northward into VT/NH have good chances of seeing snowfall from this. And with the further south and west trend in the models as of late, it may not be at all improbable to see precipitation further south into PA. Temps will be borderline, of course, for snow as it is the end of October after all. It's all going to boil down to how much and how rapidly this storm deepens. Elevation will likely be a factor as well. Follow up later tonight.