Overall pattern looks to be a near carbon copy of the previous day. Setup once again features relatively weak wind fields, combined with rich low level Dp's and Pwat's. Hence, favorable environment for slow-moving showers/storms will be in place over a large part of the area once again. Primary threat will be localized flooding with any of the slow movers, so flash flood advisories/warnings seem like a pretty good bet.
In terms of severe, environment fits the profile for pulse-type convection, some of which could briefly attain severe limits with marginally severe hail and perhaps a few damaging wind gusts possible in the strongest cores. Having said that, 00z NAM depicts a rather localized area of modest destabilization and lift coupled with sufficient low level bulk shear values in/around Eastern VA/MD/DE. All things considered, environment looks supportive for a greater coverage of severe storms. Therefore, will try my hand at a localized Slight Risk for severe hail/wind in this area. Given overall small size of the Risk area, will be looking for a concentration of about 7+ combined severe wind/hail reports in this corridor. Lastly, with helicity values progged to be AOB 100 just about everywhere Today, tornado threat should once again be non-existent.
..EGAN.. 07/24/2009
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