A chance of thunderstorms looks possible just about anywhere east of Ohio, with perhaps the exception of far southeastern Maine. In between, a Slight Risk will be in place from Central New England to Northeastern Virginia and points east.
While some uncertainty exists regarding the amount of destabilization to take place, or where greatest instability will occur, SBCAPE should generally range from 1500-2250 J/KG. GFS looks to be overdone in this regard across NJ and Central New England. Low level shear will also be ample enough for organized convection. Overall storm mode looks to favor a more linear assortment, with damaging winds the main threat.
00z WRF shows a potent squall line of sorts impacting the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to New York metro in the vicinity of 4-6PM this Evening. May need a 30% Damaging Wind probability in this corridor with final outlook later this Morning after RUC guidance becomes available. Potential for a few supercells will also exist separate from any organized lines that form. Therefore, an equal 15% probability for severe hail will also be included. Helicity values are not overally strong, and will be best across New England, with equal pockets shown throughout the remaining Slight Risk area. All in all, tornado threat is low, but non-zero, so will therefore carry a low 2% probability throughout the Slight Risk area to account for this low potential.
Further inland across PA/NY, threat looks marginal at-best due to weak Instability/LI ahead of weak trough that will swing thru during the Afternoon hours. However, not out of the question that the 5% probability may need to be dragged to the west with final outlook.
Final Outlook will be issued by Noon.
..EGAN.. 07/26/2009
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