Afternoon Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook for July 2, 2009...

Discussion...

Currently some strong to severe storms on-going over far Southeastern Massachusetts in the vicinity of Cape Cod. Behind these, most of the region is under a very cloudy/showery regime that will aid in dampening the amount of destabilization this Afternoon. This ultimately should keep the severe threat to a rather minimum with only isolated storms approaching severe limits. Main threat will be the traditional damaging wind/large hail as well as some excessive rainfall, especially in areas already reeling from yesterday's rainfall.

Even though Overnight outlook was already well-drawn out like usual, the weather is always changing, and thus minimal changes were done to keep ahead. Decided to keep the low 2% Tornado probability in play with a bit more wesstward expansion. Overall dynamics support a general area of thunder just about anywhere in the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast to the east of the Appalachians. Within here, most favorable zone for isolated severe remains over Southern New England south/west into the Coastal Plain of NJ/much of New York State, respectively. Based on the lack of overall support for organized severe convection and consequential 5% Isolated severe, I would venture to expect there will be 15 or less severe weather reports this afternoon.

As always, because we care about how accurate we are, more so than most, whether it's good or bad, there will be the usual post-game wrapup and county level verification later this Evening.

..EGAN..