Discussion...
Here is our final post on accumulations. For all intent and purpose, this is the same forecast as the previous with the exception of just a few slight variations, which I will quickly run down here.
#1. Removed previous highlight for isolated 7+ over Northeast PA/East Central NY. QPF has waned just a bit with today’s runs over this area, so we feel comfortable enough that all areas stay at or under 7”.
#2. Tightened up the 3-7” range along northern and southern periphery thru Southeast PA/Eastern and Central NY. The main concern for cutting back just a bit over parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley is tied to potential for dry slot/lack of QPF. Lack of QPF also main factor to adjustments further north. Debated whether to axe majority of Central PA from 3-7", but will leave as is with intent that most areas see 3-4". This could however end up being too generous given latest trends.
#3. Trimmed northern CT-Northwest RI-Southern MA from 6-12”, and brought this range along and north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Primary reason for doing this is QPF may be a little bit lighter than previously thought here. That is not to say some areas will not still reach 6-7” here, but the 3-7” range should do the trick here.
#4. Trimmed 6-12” out of southeast Maine and replaced with a highlight for 6+. The theory here is that some areas along the coast may briefly mix and warm aloft which could contribute to lower totals here. Feeling is that most areas within this area will fall between 4-7”, with a few spots just inland from the coast perhaps exceeding 7”.
#5. Extended 3-7" thru the remaining portion of Northern ME. Feeling is most areas here will reach or exceed 3" as SLP cuts off and retrogrades in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes providing an extended period of light snow across Northern Maine thru the end of the period (0z Thursday/7PM Wednesday). Terrain is generally >1200ft. across Northern ME, which will also factor in.
..EGAN.. 2/15/10
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