Discussion...
We've expanded the axis of heavy area a little bit from the original that was issued a few days ago with the increasing confidence of where the axis of heaviest snows (>6") will be located. However, trends for the extreme northern fringes in places near the NY/PA border over to southern New England have not been stellar, and we're backing off just a little bit in those areas, however, we still think lighter snows will reach into coastal southern New England.
At this point confidence is very high that southern PA, southern New Jersey, and OF COURSE the golden child region (Northern Virginia into the Baltimore/Washington corridor) are going to experience the heaviest snowfall. In this area, potential exists for 10 or more inches.
The area with the least confidence is Northeast Pennsylvania and Southeast New York, including the NYC metro. For now, we have maintained continuity from previous outlook and with moderate accumulations (under 7”) spreading into NYC, however, axis of heavier snows lies just to the south across Central New Jersey. Hence, it won’t take much of a shift to the north to bring heavier totals into NYC. Needless to say, there will be a fairly tight accumulation gradient in the Tri-State. Back to the west, low confidence as well for the I-80 corridor and immediately north across Pennsylvania, where aforementioned tight gradient could make for amounts ranging anywhere from a warning snowfall in excess of 6” to a meager 1-3” event depending on track adjustment.
The official accumulation outlook will be forth coming from us later today. At the present time, current thinking is will probably upgrade these zones to the following... Light (1-3), Moderate (3-7), Heavy (6-12/12-24).
..GLUNT/EGAN.. 2/4/10
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