February 5-7, 2010 Major Winter Storm...

Discussion...

All in all, very minimal fine tuning was done when we upgraded from the scenario to accumulations. They were translated as follows... Light (1-3), Moderate (3-7), Heavy (6-12, 12-24, isolated 24-32).

Just a couple of quick points...

Central Appalachians/Northern Delmarva/Southern NJ… As mentioned, highlighted 2 areas where localized amounts may exceed 2 feet. This would be over the Central Appalachians, including much of the Blue Ridge, in West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland. This was due in large part to the high terrain of this area. The other area is across the northern Delmarva area of Maryland, Delaware, and also includes southern New Jersey. Feeling is that this area is most vulnerable to experience some rather intense meso-banding as coastal low begins to take over and rapidly deepen. High winds are also likely at the height of the storm here which will only exacerbate the situation. In either of these areas, most locals will stay under 24", however, potential exists for isolated amounts higher than this, perhaps exceeding the 30” mark.

Southeast Virginia… Most noticeable change from earlier was to bring moderate accumulations of 3-7” further southeast in the Tidewater region of Virginia. Even though this area will experience quite a bit of mixing, with even some plain rain possible at times earlier on, feeling is that all areas will change to snow toward the final 6 hours of the event as the coastal low deepens off the North Carolina coast and deformation snows work into the area. Highest amounts of 3-7” will be found away from the coast.

NYC/LI… Continued with the idea that most significant snow stays south into Central New Jersey. Going with 1-3” across northern suburbs/boroughs, and much of Long Island. Did however bring 3-7” into Staten Island and extreme southern Nassau County LI. This is still a very tough call, and to be honest, even a slight shift in either direction (North or South) could affect accumulations significantly.

In addition, here is a small list of cities that I’ve decided to take a stab at an official accumulation projection on…

State College, PA- 6”
Richmond, VA- 7”
Parkersburg, WV- 8”
Pittsburgh, PA- 9”
Harrisburg, PA (Capital City)- 10”
Roanoke, VA- 12”
Morgantown, WV- 13”
Philadelphia, PA- 14”
Washington, D.C- 20”
Baltimore, MD- 22”
Dover, DE- 24”

..EGAN.. 2/5/10