Another Major Winter Storm on tap this week...

Discussion...

As promised, here is the full disco and a reissuance of our scenario map:

A quick turnaround from the storm that slammed the Mid-Atlantic region over the weekend, this next storm looks to affect some of the same areas as well as places further north this time. Most of the 0z suite is in fairly reasonable agreement with the overall evolution with a low to the Ohio Valley giving way to potentially rapid coastal development of the Mid-Atlantic. The global models/ensembles of the GFS and Euro were given more weight over the NAM which can be too dry with these type of systems.

Unlike most events this winter, this storm is likely to significantly affect the entire I-95 corridor from DC to Boston. The area from Philly to NYC could be the region that gets the most, which would be an unprecedented event for the folks in Philly if they were to get slammed with another major snowstorm. Back west, the primary cutting up into the Ohio Valley and associated transfer to the coast should make for a nice shield of snow to roll through pretty much all of PA, southern NY at least up to or near I-90, northern/western MD and Va, DC, New Jersey and southern New England. As such, we painted this region in a broad heavy swath (>6" potential). Mixing issues could crop up in West Va and extreme SW PA before the coastal low really begins to take over. There will also likely be some mixing in southeast VA and the southern Delmarva regions.

The biggest single issue at the moment is how deep and rapidly is the coastal going to form. If the 0z Euro had its way with an impressively deep 974 low, it would probably give Philly a storm similar to what they just saw, and clobber most of the eastern half of pa up through southern New England. Other issues especially for folks to the west will be the snow ratios, which are liable to be high with this system due to the cold air that is going to have to work with. At this point, folks in far upstate New York and northern New England appear that they will have minimal or no impacts from this storm.

..GLUNT.. 2/8/10