Discussion...
Here is the preliminary scenario map for the storm. Being that its still about a D4-D5 event, I'm obviously going to go with the disclaimer of "subject to change". Both Logan and I look to issue a coordinated followup scenario on Wednesday when things are getting into that realm of being much more certain.
I used the basis of my axis' shape on the evolution of the precipitation shield on the high-res RGEM precip map and shifted the axis southeast some which accommodates the current model suite. Otherwise I think this storm will evolve in a miller-B type fashion with a primary in the Ohio Valley giving way to the secondary coastal storm. That will knock down snow totals in the far southwestern part of VA/WV and eastern KY.
While I used the RGEM precip map to form a basic shape, I'm not quite sure I buy how warm it is at this juncture in VA. So the moderate region is pushed further southeast into the central VA region. Once to about Richmond though on the I-64 corridor, I do think mixing will be a bit more of an issue this go around for those folks as well as up into the southern Delmarva.
Overall, I'm definitely on the further north train with this storm. And there's a decent chance that the northern trend isn't done. The PV should be more to the east for this event and there is not a fresh arctic airmass drilled all the way into the Carolinas. That by default tells me this is coming higher than the last storm. However, that extremely deep storm blocked up north is going to eventually send this low to a more easterly trajectory and likely keep most of upstate New York and New England out of the storm, again.
..GLUNT.. 2/2/10
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