Discussion... Updated 3:30AM 2/3/10...
Initially had planned on issuing update to previous scenario outlook that was issued 24 hours ago by Mike, with the main emphasis surrounding the idea of shifting axis’ further north based on latest model trends from the day. This northern trend was being led primarily by the GFS/NAM/GFS Ensembles, which have advertised the most noticeable northward shift throughout the course of the day.
However, latest runs of the Canadian/Euro, namely the Canadian, which up until this Evening’s 0z run seemed to be one of, if not the most consistent operation model thus far regarding this event, have thrown a bit of a wrench into the situation. It’s been made widely known that reconnaissance data from the Pacific has now been ingested by the American models, whereas their foreign counter-parts remain unaffected by this data. How significant this facet of information has made a difference in the model output remains to be seen, but it is quite intriguing and worth noting that the American models tend to lie on the northern envelope of the guidance, whereas the Foreign models tend to reside on the southern end as far as QPF is concerned. The main culprit behind this QPF discrepancy will depend on the evolution of the LP system and whether or not a primary LP can penetrate further north into the OV before transferring its energy to the coast. The GFS/NAM delay this handoff the longest, and consequently bring the significant snow further north as opposed to a more Canadian/Euro which takes main LP to the coast much sooner.
This discrepancy among the models has the most significant implications on areas such as Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and areas north of about I-80 up to about the NY/PA border over to the Massachusetts Turnpike. If the GFS/GEFS/NAM are correct, this region would be subject to a significant winter storm, whereas if current Canadian/Euro evolution is correct, these areas would be spared a significant event, with the best snows passing south of the area.
Having said that, enough uncertainly exists such that we feel best course of action is to remain consistent with previous forecast. We feel the current forecast offers up a logical “middle of the road” approach” to the current model spread, and thus, will re-run previous scenario outlook for at least another period, and await further runs during the day on Wednesday before making any significant changes.
..EGAN.. 2/3/2010
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