Verification for Sunday's Severe Weather Outlook...

Verification for Sunday's Severe Weather Outlook from Mike and I...

Overall, some very good things happened that made this an excellent verification.

First, the 30% Damaging Wind probability... Excellent
This part of the forecast was actually introduced Friday Night on our Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook. This was a rather aggressive call on our part to go this route on a D2 outlook considering there was bust potential surrounding the amount of instability that would be realized. Although the exact placement had to be tweaked heading into Day 1, the enhanced probability remained in place over the same general area. SPC did not introduce a similar enhanced 30% Wind Damage probability until early Sunday Afternoon, some 36 hours later than us. End result easily verified this, and if anything, this corridor of enhanced wind damage could have been extended even further to the Southeast. In addition, one could make a good case that even a Moderate Risk for 45% Wind Damage probability could have been leveraged over atleast Western NY southeast to Northern PA. However, being the 1st ones to jump on this and make an aggressive call 2 days out makes this a big reward.

Second... the 5% Tornado Probability...Excellent
This was a late edition to our Severe Weather Outlook for Sunday. It was issued on the final outlook at Noon time Sunday, but this was still a pre-emptive upgrade before the severe weather was even reaching Western NY. As you can see, 2 tornado reports, likely to become confirmations this Morning, surfaced in this localized corridor. This obviously was more than enough to verify this aggressive call. Any more reports would have raised concern over a need for a 10% Tornado probability risk. SPC capped the Tornado probability at a widespread generic 2%. Again, an aggressive call on our part that paid dividends.

When all said and done, the positive verifications far outweigh any of the negatives, which really was only 1 negative in part to the overblown severe hail potential.

Onto the breakdown...

Slight Risk captured 62/65 severe weather reports;
30% Severe Wind Probability: Captured 41/62 Wind Damage/Severe Gust reports.
15% Severe Wind Probability: Captured 19/62 Wind Damage/Severe Gust reports.
5% Tornado Probability: Captured 2/2 reported and/or confirmed Tornadoes.
2% Tornado Probability: Captured 0/2 reported and/or confirmed Tornadoes.

Isolated Severe captured 2/65 severe weather reports;
5% Severe Wind Probability: Captured 2/62 Wind Damage/Severe Gust reports.
5% Severe Hail Probability: Captured 1/1 Severe Hail Reports.






..EGAN.. 08/10/2009