General thunderstorms will be possible along and south/east of a line from approximately Saranac Lake NY- Syracuse NY- Bradford PA. A Slight Risk for severe storms will be possible across Downeast ME and extreme eastern NH/MA.
On-going storms over Western NY down to adjacent northeastern OH will begin the outlook period. As stated earlier, despite ample destabilization and lift over parts of the forecast area, weak low level shear will hinder much in the way of storm coverage and organization. 00z WRF showing very little in the way of storms firing along and out ahead of the front Today over much of the area, likely due to the lack of large scale forcing and shear.
Axis of strong shear will be over northern New England, and this is where a 15% Slight Risk will be carried for Damaging wind potential. 00z WRF shows a organized line of convection firing in central ME by early Afternoon and working across the southeastern half of the state thru Early Evening. Thus, think damaging winds will be the primary threat in this area. Debated whether to tack a low 2% tornado probability with this potential, and did so with the idea there could be a brief spin-up if any embedded supercell structures emerge within the line.
Elsewhere, only other area of organized convection is shown to be over the southwest, across parts of WV eastward into VA. However, lack of low level shear will preclude any higher probabilities than 5% for wind/hail for now. Not out of the question that may need to re-visit this potential later this Morning with final outlook issuance.
..EGAN.. 08/05/2009
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
No comments:
Post a Comment