It looks to be shaping up to potentially be a bit of a noisy day for most of upstate New York and extreme northern PA. Personally i think the more widespread general severe day could be Monday, but the models are printing out impressive parameters for Sunday's smaller impact area...namely the EHI values which are pretty high in the vicinity of the shortwave that will be running the frontal boundary. Further south into PA and so forth, warm temps aloft associated with the ridge punching up will generally cap the atmosphere pretty well. Although, far eastern PA into New Jersey needs to be watched as well, even though their not really included in our severe risk zone...as good parameters sneak down into that region as well. Otherwise, these folks will have their shot Monday. However, the EHI values are not projected to be nearly what they supposed to be on Sunday.
Anyways, we have inserted a 30% coverage region roughly centered over the western part of New York. I'm pretty confident in the fact that we could get a pretty decent outbreak there, and not just because Logan has been ridiculously lucky in getting some good storms to chase and film. Being that this is the first stretch of summer-time weather we have had well... all summer.. theres going to be a ton of moisture and heat available to fuel these storms, as evidenced by the very high capes and PWAT values. Add into that the shortwave moving across which will serve as the trigger. EHI values top into the 2-3 range, which is rather impressive.
I expect storm coverage to generally be cellular and/or bow segments. Storms that develop in the 30% region and probably most of the 15% region will easily have the chance to become severe. This is of course the prelim D2 outlook, and Myself and/or Logan will adjust our outlook accordingly for D1. If things hold, the 30% region will include our more heightened 5% tornado prob.
Severe D2 risk map:
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Coverage map:
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EHI bullseye:21z Sunday:
0z Monday:
..GLUNT.. 08/08/2009
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