Overall conditions will be favorable for general thunderstorms along and west of line from approximately Caribou ME- Portland ME- Hartford CT. A Slight risk will be in affect across parts of NY/PA/WV/MD.
Rather complex outlook is in store for Today. 00z WRF shows a rather potent MCS developing Tonight over Southern IN and continuing Southeast toward the western edge of the forecast area. The bulk of the action looks to stay west of the area, primarily from Southern IN/Central KY, and points south and west.
Despite favorable SBCAPE and Negative LI across much of the western areas, best low level shear values will remain north of the border in Canada and northern MI for the most part. 00z WRF depicts a noticeable split in the action between the aforementioned MCS and the area of thunderstorm development later this Morning/Early Afternoon.
If this ends up being the case, best chances for severe weather appear to be along the Ohio River from OH/WV border and points north/east from 3 PM onward. Overall storm mode looks to favor a more linear assortment and multi-cellular clusters, however, there is a chance for a couple supercells. Hence, an equal 15% hail probability, and minimal 2% tornado probability will also be included. All in all, there is certainly a chance that things will need adjustment later this Morning.
..EGAN.. 08/04/2009
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