Updated Severe Weather Outlook for This Afternoon/Evening...

Discussion...
As much as I hate to do this, made more changes than I wanted too. Essentially, I combined the 2 previous Slight Risk areas that were on previous Outlook from last night along with 2 main changes. First, I agree with SPC on an enhanced 30% Damaging Wind Probability, albeit, a little less on the eastward extent. This Morning's RUC13 really is gung-ho on a potential Bow Echo sweeping over the Twin Tiers of NY/PA from about 3PM into the Evening hours. This was something I made sure to mention Last Night that may need a 30% Damaging Wind Probability over northern PA/Southern NY. Other change was to stick a minimal 2% tornado probability over this same general area. This bow echo could be somewhat intense over the 30% area, and it's possible we could see a brief spin-up associated with it, despite a more solid area of helicity not being present.

One thing I do know, the hail threat will not be much of a factor Today, so going to keep hail threat capped at 5%, same as last night.

..EGAN.. 08/10/2009