A powerful storm system is progged to affect the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast beginning Sunday and lasting into Tuesday. Many questions have still yet to be resolved after tonights 0z model package, and if anything, more uncertainty exists now than 24 hours ago. Models... in particular the UKMET...ECMWF, have trended well west and are showing a track thru western PA and NY which would yield a much wetter vs. whiter scenario for many across the M-A and N-E. GFS lies a bit east of this, with a track along the Appalachin mtns., this however would be least likely as storm tracks generally follow one side or the other. GEFS suite furthest east with a track along or just west of I-95.
ATTM... will go with a GFS/GEFS blend and side with a track that is just inland from I-95 across the coastal Plain. This wud result in an all rain event along and east of I-95 from Washington/Baltimore into the eastern half of New England. A wintry poupourri would affect areas along I-81 north of Harrisburg to Binghamton to Syracuse and up to the Champlain River Valley and the western half of New England. Best chance for predominantly snow would be confined to the mtns of central and western PA northward into the Finger Lake region of NY.
Again, to re-emphasize there remains considerable uncertainty with regard to the eventual evolution of this complex storm system, and a slight jog in the track to the east or west will greatly determine precip types and amounts. Please continue to check back here for the latest regarding this possible winter storm.
...LTE
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