11/29/2008

Evening Update On Impending Storm...



After re-assessing, will forego any changes to forecast with this update and keep things as is for now. Chances of anyone seeing >6" appears to be very slim at this point. Previous Update below...

Northern Mid-Atlantic...

Expecting precipitation to begin as a period of snow or snow/sleet for many locations along/west of I-81 and north of I-80 before a changeover to rain occurs. Changeover will occur first in valley locals and gradually expand northward with the northwest mtns. that last place to experience a changeover. Here, advisory level snow amounts are certainly possible and have issued a swath of 3-6" across this area.

Elsewhere, a T-3" should be all that comes about from this storm with regards to snowfall, but that said, travel conditions will still be hazardous for a time until precip changes to all liquid. Areas along and east of I-81 to I-80 and over to the coast should begin as rain from the start, with a possible brief onset of some snow or sleet across the Susquehanna River Valley not out of the question, but feel this threat is minimal and any wintry precip should quickly transition to rain.

...LTE

New York/New England...

Precipitation should begin to overspread southern New York by noon Sunday, starting as a snow/sleet mixture. Rain will begin mixing in and eventually a changeover to all rain should occur from south-north, beginning in the valleys. Exception will be across the mtns. of the western Southern Tier and the Catskills of central NY where a prolonged period of snow/sleet is possible given the elevation, so have issued a swath of 3-6" to cover these areas. Other trouble spot will be across the Adirondack Mtns. of the north country, where it is not out of the question that low end warning amounts could be reached, but for now, will keep snow amounts in the advisory range and re-assess with later update.

Across the mtns. of northern New England, again this area will need to be monitored for a possible upgrade to snow amounts, but for now, will start out with 3-6" across the higher terrain. Couple limiting factors are the mixing potential, and marginal temperatures yielding to cut down on snow ratios. Whether or not these can be overcome to produce a significant snowfall will be a difficult challenge, but threat does exist and will need to be monitored.

Across the Tri-state northward across the Hudson River Valley, rain will be the predominate precip type. Tricky call across the immediate Capital Ditrict with regards to whether or not any snow accumulation will be observed, and for now have sued Albany as a cutoff point across the Hudson River Valley, with points south starting as a brief mixture before changing over to rain, with no accumulation. The same will go for the New England coastline along the plain where rain will likely keep any wintry threat virtually nil.

...LTE

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