10/28/2008

Early Season Nor' Easter Underway

Synopsis…
An early season Winter Storm is taking shape off the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, and will bring the first accumulating snowfall to interior sections of the northeast during the day on Tuesday and lasting into Tuesday Night. The snow should begin to taper off Wednesday morning as the storm continues to lift off to the north into Canada with blustery conditions lasting into Thursday before temperatures begin to moderate by the weekend.

NY/New England…
Powerful winter storm will be underway across central New York by Tuesday morning lasting into Wednesday morning. Latest obvs from the region have shown KMPO and KBGM have transitioned over to snow and expect this trend to continue across the remainder of low lying elevations by Tuesday morning. By noon Tuesday, believe most locations west of the Hudson River Valley will have made the changeover, with snow… heavy at times continuing into the afternoon hours. By Tuesday evening, snow should begin to lighten up across southern New York with totals ranging from 2-4” across the valleys of the I-81 corridor below 1200ft. with 4-6” across elevations above 1200ft. Highest totals should be in the Catskills where warning criteria will be met. Further north… across I-90 corridor and Mohawk Valley, totals here should average 2-6”. Across the Adirondacks, I feel this area could potentially be crippled where highest totals are believed to be. Accumulations of 10-16”, with local amounts close to 20” are possible by Wednesday morning. Further north across the St. Lawrence Valley, expecting this area to remain below warning accums with 2-6” likely. Over into Western New England, this area is a tougher call as too how much wrap around accumulation will occur. As of now, believe up to 2” is possible over the Berkshires and southern Green Mountains, extending into western Maine. Northern Greens will stand that best shot at seeing advisory level snows as the flow backs around to the northwest, and have indicated this on the map.

Winds are the other story, and will only add to the problem. As low pressure continues to strengthen, winds will be on the increase by late morning across central NY, combined with snowfall rates to create very hazardous travel, especially across higher elevations. Scattered to widespread power outages are likely from the southern tier of NY to the Canadian border east of the NY/VT border where the heaviest snow will be confined.

EGAN...

PA/NJ...
With the storm ongoing and starting to deepen offshore, rain is slowly but surely starting to turn over to snow over the high ground in the Poconos and northern NJ. The PennDOT highway cams show snow on the ground along I-81 near Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.



Additionally, an Accuweather forums user from extreme northern NJ had reported that snow was falling and was sticking to the roads above 900 feet. By later this morning, most of northeastern PA north of I-80 along the I-81 corridor over to NW New Jersey should be seeing snowfall at rather low elevations, perhaps in the 500-1000ft range. Totals should range from 1-3 inches in the valley locations to perhaps as much as 2-6 in the high terrain.

GLUNT...

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