This is going to be a complicated scenario with the marginal temps. Precip amounts, rates, elevation, local terrain, ground temps, etc are all going to dictate how much certain folks receive. Our map includes a fairly straight-forward 1-3 and 3-7. Basically, we feel the majority of accumulations will fall in these categories. Elevation will be a factor of course, so the lower spots will receive the low end of the categories. The potential is there for amounts to be higher than what we got, especially in the usual suspect regions of the Alleghenies and northern/NE PA. Also, compared to the HPC guidance, this is a pretty conservative forecast. HPC Day 2 outlooks outline almost all of central PA in at least a 40% prob of >4 inches. We will find out soon enough.
This map covers the first wave, not the secondary system as of yet. We will fine tune our forecast as the evolution of that becomes more clear. This storm is likely going to make a major mess, generally most of the trees in central and northern PA still have foliage.. and around here about half of them (oaks) still have some green left.
..GLUNT..10/15/09
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