Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook for June 30, 2009

Based on 0z/12z runs, think there is now enough of a threat to introduce a Slight Risk over a portion of the area. Slight Risk covers parts of Eastern NY/Western New England and includes areas such as Poughkeepsie NY-Albany NY-Glens Falls NY-Rutland VT-Keene NH-Hartford CT.

While no 1 severe weather perameter appears overly favorable for severe convection, all or most perameters are present and appear to be atleast modest in strength. Sufficient low level shear on the order of 30-40kts. coupled with modest lift of -3 to -6 and SBCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg will be present over Eastern NY and adjacent Western New England during the Afternoon/Early Evening hours on Tuesday. Overall storm mode will likely feature muti-cellular clusters/line segments capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. However, there is fairly good amount of low level Helicity forecasted which suggests the potential for a few low-topped rotating supercells to develop and further enhance associated hail threat.

..EGAN..