Not going to elaborate much on the verification except to state the occurances and breakdown. I'm glad Mike convinced me at the last second to not go with a 30% severe wind probability as the amount of wind damage reports would not have supported such a probability. After all, that's what good team mates are for.
Total of 33 Severe Weather Reports across Forecast Area;
Breakdown…
Slight Risk captured 32/33 severe weather reports;
15% Severe Wind Probability: captured 22/23 wind damage reports.
15% Severe Hail Probability: captured 6/6 severe hail reports.
2% Tornado Probability: captured 4/4 reported or confirmed tornadoes.
*Number of Reports/Confirmations does not necessarily signify the actual number of tornadoes. There were 2 tornado reports from nearly the same area in Northumberland County PA. In all likelihood, these reports confirmed a single tornado.*
Isolated Severe captured 1/33 severe weather reports;
5% Severe Wind Probability: captured 1/23 wind damage reports.
5% Severe Hail Probability: captured 0/6 severe hail reports.
..EGAN.. 7/12/2009
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