Updated D1 SWO product is now on the street. As has been the case the past few days, yet another shortwave will rotate in tonight across NY/PA and into New England during the day on Friday. Based on latest radar, general Thunder line for D1 will start in place south of I-80 as showers, with perhaps an embedded rumble of thunder move thru PA/NY during the Overnight. This shortwave will be the focal point for producing yet another round of showers/storms over much of the Northeast on Friday.
0z NAM keeps MLCAPE generally under 1250 J/KG over the entire area, and coupled with weak lift/shear, storms will have a very hard time undergoing strong vertical development. Even the usual more robust GFS downplays the severe threat today as well. Based on latest NAM/GFS, debated whether to even include a severe threat today given the overall lack of favorable ingredients for severe convection.
As is, I can probably see a few (likely less than 5, most certainly less than 10) locally damaging wind gusts/marginally severe hail reports today with the strongest of cells, especially given added lift from the rather mountainous terrain of New England. Therefore, will carry a low 5% severe wind/hail probability to account for this. With very low helicity/destabilization expected, tornado threat will be less than 2%.
..EGAN..
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