Overnight Severe Weather Outlook for Monday July 6, 2009...

SWO Product for D1 complete.

Discussion...
Low Pressure situated well north of the border in the Canadian province of Quebec and it’s attendant cold front will be the triggering mechanism for showers/storms later Today, primarily across Upstate NY/New England.

For all intent and purpose, Mesoscale Forecaster Chris Broyles has a pretty good looking D2 Outlook structure based on 00z runs, and wouldn’t think much change is needed for the rollover into D1.

Strongest deep layer/bulk shear looks to remain dislocated from axis of best destabilization, south of I-90 and north of I-90, respectively. With CAPE of generally 1000-1500 J/KG and Negative Lift around -3 to -5, potential is once again low, but not non-zero for some of the expected storms to reach short-lived severe status. Also, with freezing levels once again unseasonably low and less than 10000ft., added potential is there for a few hailers. Most favorable area looks to reside across N Central NY east into N New England. Debated whether to highlight a 5% wind threat with hail being the lead threat, but for now, will do so with the outside potential for an isolated wind damage report. Late Morning update can re-evaluate and locally fine-tune if conditions should warrant.

..EGAN..