Morning Update: Unfortunately have made more adjustments than we planned on when we issued our 1st map Thursday Evening. Safe to say the bust potential is on the increase and further adjustments may be warranted. For now, have bumped up ending time by 3 hours to 9AM Saturday. Second, have cut back on 10-14" swath significantly, and reserved it to the Catskills region of NY and Wayne county PA. Do to fast progression of the system, we feel widespread threat for 12"+ has decreased and will be more isolated in nature. Have also refined accumulation range a tad...going with T-2/2-6 instead of T-3/3-7. Other change is to bring heavier snows a tad to the north across NY/New England.
As stated... this may need further adjustment... and we are concerned for areas south of I-80 seeing more mixing than was originally thought, which could really cut into snowfall amounts. Something that bears watching. For now, will forego any major overhaul and let previous forecast (outside of aforementioned adjustments) run thru next update which should be later this morning.
Observations out of the Midwest seem to be defying what models showed on tonights run in terms of thermal profiles. It appears mixing is being observed much further north than what was originally advertised by 0z models. Should this translate eastward...we may be in trouble in terms of southward extent of significant snow. We shall see.
...LTE
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