12/16/2008

Another Winter Storm to Impact the Northeast...



Synopsis...
Went with a GFS/NAM/SREF blend for this forecast. Storm system developing over the Midwest will push eastward during the day today spreading a wintry mix across the northern Mid-Atlantic region during the Afternoon hours lasting into tonight. Later this Evening, snow should breakout across New York state into western New England. By Wednesday morning, storm system should be making its way toward the coast, where some redevelopment is expected. This will bring moderate snow accumulations to much of Maine during the day Wednesday into Wednesday Evening before rapidly moving off to the northeast.

...LTE

Northern Mid-Atlantic...
All areas should start out as snow...locally mdt-hvy at times, across the southern half of Pennsylvania and northern portions of WV,VA, MD into western NJ. Eventually, warmer air should sneak into the upper levels and allow sleet to begin mixing in, before a change to mostly sleet/FzRa is expected. Prior to the changeover, we believe there will be a large area of 2-5" spanning from the Laurel Highlands north and east into the Northern Tier and NErn PA. We expect valley locals in swrn/sern PA to experience a quicker changeover to sleet/FzRa, thus keeping snow/sleet totals under 3" for the most part. As far as ice potential goes, we expect anywhere from .1-.3" ice accretion, with highest accretion in the Shenendoah/Ohio/Susquehanna Valleys. Mainly rain expected along and east of I-95 from Baltimore/DC thru central NJ.

...LTE

New York/New England...
Snow should begin to move into wrn/cntrl NY this evening...becoming locally mdt-hvy at times during the first part of the overnight before sleet begins to mix in...especially across the Southern Tier and Hudson River Valley. Highest amounts should be along the NYS Thruway (I-90), where little in the way of mixing is forecasted. This shud keep snow the predominate form of precip thruout the duration of the storm, thus have forecasted 3-7" here. Across NYC metro/southern New England...snow should start, but quickly become mixed with and change to sleet before changing to rain overnight. Only around a Trace-1" is expected here, mainly along and north/west of I-95. As storm pushes off the coastline Wednesday Morning, some redevelopment is expected as snow will be affecting much of interior New England. As storm begins to rapidly lift off to the northeast, snow should wind down considerably by Wednesday Afternoon. Total accumulations should range from 2-5"...highest amounts inland away from the coast.

...LTE

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