Using mostly a GFS/GEFS blend...we are expecting a widespread advisory level snowfall spanning roughly between I-80/I-90 from Wrn NY/PA thru East Cntrl New England. Good Omega/fluff factor will yield favorable snow ratio's, particularly across PA/NY, where ratios should be in the 15-20:1 range. Using this in combination with an expected qpf field ranging from .1-.35, snow amounts should range from 2-6". Highest amounts of up to 6" will best be found in the higher terrain such as the Catskills/ northern Poconos/ southern Adirondacks/ Berkshires/ southern Greens. Other area will be extreme interior southeastern New England where some added Ocean enhancement is possible as the shortwave pushes offshore and undergoes intensification as it rapidly departs into the open waters.
We may be extending advisory snows south a tad across PA with this afternoon's reassessment, but overall, confidence is pretty high for this event to verify as shown.
...LTE
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