Severe Weather Outlook Verification for June 30, 2009

Verification process complete and all severe weather reports are accounted for. A Slight Risk was indeed warranted as the amount and congestion of reports are more than ample enough to verify such a risk. As far as the models go, the NAM/RUC handily outperformed the GFS with this event, especially in terms of CAPE values as to what was actually realized. Here is the breakdown....

Total reports came to 45, of which, 25 Severe Wind Gusts/Wind Damage Reports, 20 Severe Hail Reports, and 0 Tornado reports/confirmations as of yet.

Of 45 total reports...

Slight Risk zone captured 42/45 severe weather reports.
15% Wind zone: captured 23/25 severe wind/damage reports.
15% Hail zone: captured 19/20 severe hail reports.
2% Tornado zone: captured 0/0 tornado reports/confirmations thus far. 1 Tornado warned cell in Sullivan/Delaware Counties NY did produce a Funnel Cloud and wind damage, although no confirmed/reported tornadoes. This could be subject to change.

Isolated Severe zone captured 2/45 severe weather reports.
5% Wind: 2/25 severe wind/damage reports.
5% Hail: 0/20 severe hail reports.

..EGAN..