Synopsis: For this event, we are using a blend of the GFS/GEFS/NAM/SREF. One concern is that the GFS/NAM may be overdoing QPF with this event, so we’ve tweaked amounts which are bit lighter than what models would suggest. Latest check over the H8 temp profiles/coinciding Omega values across interior NY/New England look good, but not overly impressive with this event, therefore we expect snow ratios in the vicinity of 10:1 to 15:1 for most interior locations. This yields a widespread light to moderate snowfall across a similar area that was affected by the most recent clipper. We expect down sloping to play another significant role similar to the last event, with higher amounts across western PA with lighter snows east of the mountains.
We have issued a higher swath of 5-8" across a good chunk of Maine southwestward into New Hampshire. This was based on anticipated enhancement/intensification as the Low taps available moisture off the Atlantic. It should be known that this amount may be slightly increased with next update, but for now will keep it a low-end warning event here.
Lastly, we have a rather large area of highlighted real estate which are aimed toward the mountainous terrain of NY, VT, MA, NH, ME. These are areas we have flagged for a potential upgrade for higher amounts than are currently indicated. However, confidence is not high enough to expand at this time, thus we decided highlighting for locally higher amounts of >5" in these areas was best course of action for now. We will explore this potential again this afternoon following 12Z guidance and adjust accordingly.
...MAG/LTE
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