Some things to know: There are areas highlighted on both maps that indicate the possibility of higher snowfall amounts but not set in stone enough to warrant a shading for the said amounts. Are a little bit more confident on the Laurels totals so I went ahead and threw possible higher amounts for that region. On the Northeast map, Logan highlighted the Laurels as well as southern New England for possible areas for higher amounts than our current highest range we have (2-5). We will issue an update with new accum categories if confidence increases.
Other concerns:
-Downsloping, I used the SREFs some in factoring in the downsloping effect east of the mountains especially in southeast PA. I'm pretty confident on 2-5 placement there and took a pretty middle of the road placement.. but it could go either way in this region with folks receiving more or receiving the shaft in a lot of southeastern PA locations.
-Other areas within the 2-5 range receiving higher amounts: I am primarily watching western and central PA for amounts higher than advertised, especially after seeing Matt's high-res WRF maps posted earlier. Overall its possible anyone in the 2-5 range could see more, snow ratios are going to play a big part in if that happens. A lot of folks are going to have the dgz (dendritic growth zone) in the ideal -12 to -18ºC range coupled with decent Omega values (lift) within the dgz. That should result in efficient snowfall ratios on the order of 15-20:1. The Laurels could see even better ratios than that with the upslope effect and associated extra lift.
-Further north extent: Logan points out the GFS printed out higher qpf totals all the way up towards Lake Ontario, so will keep an eye on possible extension northward.
...GLUNT/EGAN
No comments:
Post a Comment