Updated Severe Weather Outlook for this Afternoon/Evening...

Final Outlook is here. Two changes to previous outlook. First was to slighty extend Slight Risk/15% probability a bit to the southeast to account for fallout of current MCS over Western NY. The WRF appears to have been right on the money with developing a large Bow Echo, and tracking it into Western NY by 18z. It hinted at this Bow holding together into atleast East Central PA, so will match this up with current 30%Damaging Wind probability that was issued last night.

Last change, after some good discussion, we decided to hoist a 5% Tornado probability for parts of Western/Central NY and North Central PA. I have reasonable confidence that in front of this nasty line of severe weather that we can get some cells to fire out ahead. This region roughly encompasses where it has essentially cleared out as evidenced by the visible pic:


This area of clearing is along the warm front and just south of it in the warm sector, where the heating and high dewpoints and associated CAPES and some reasonable shear would make any storm development out ahead have a high probability of becoming severe. Additionally, the line itself could also have some shenanigans up its sleeve once it crashes south. We're going a lil bit more heightened on the tornado threat, but I think its something to watch.

..GLUNT/EGAN.. 08/09/2009





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