Discussion
In the last few days folks in the favored regions downwind of the lakes have been racking up the snow in this very early season cold air outbreak. The local resorts in my area are already making snow, although Seven Springs hasn't needed much help..picking up 10 inches in the last few days according to their website.
Tonight currently there is a clipper that is dropping out of the Great Lakes with some light snow. Light in intensity.. but also very light in terms of snow/water equivalent ratio as well. With the very cold air in place and ideal fluff factor conditions in place, some areas that see some steady snow from the initial system could see ratios of 20:1+! So a couple of inches could fall primarily in western NY and NW PA. The real show starts in the wake of the clipper as it reinforces the cold and sends a renewed cold NW flow over the lakes. The alignment is great for seeing heavy snow pile up in Northwest PA and the Laurel HIghlands in Western PA. Higher elevations there could see the upper end of 6-12 inches.
Across upstate NY, potential exists for this event to yield the heaviest snows thus far for the early winter season. Typical snow belt regions downwind of Lakes Erie/Ontario, especially across the Tug Hill region of central NY and Chautauqua Ridge of western NY, expecting 6-12" to have fallen by Friday evening, with snow continuing into the early part of the Weekend. Will monitor this situation closely, and re-evaluate accumulation potential for Friday Night and Saturday later on.
Lake Effect and Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the aforementioned regions. More coming as the event unfolds.
...MAG/LTE
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