Early Season Shananigans to Impact the Northeast

First of all I would like to welcome everyone to our new blog that Logan and myself have been planning out over the course of the summer. While we had planned to open the blog up here soon, it certainly wasn't anticipated that it would be just in time for the first potential major nor' easter of the season to shape up.

Heres the setup:


As you can see there is a digging trough coming into the east, this trough will become negatively tilted and fire off a coastal storm that will eventually back into the Northeast potentially resulting in the first significant snowfall of the season for parts of the interior.

More details are going to follow later today, but I am just going to lay out the basics for now. The NAM has been putting out the deeper solution of most models with respect to the storm, backing in a 984mb system into the upstate of New York. The 09z SREF means cover a majority of the Northeast, even into the big cities, though i think that the I-95 corridor and east are highly doubtful. The GFS and Euro have been coming toward the NAM solution.

09z SREF


12z NAM


I am now just starting to see the new 12z GFS, and it is starting to come even more around to the NAM solution, but a bit further to the northeast.

12z GFS at 30 hours


The implications are that this could be a significant early season snowfall for a lot of the interior northeast. The Pocono's, Adirondacks, Catskills, and northward into VT/NH have good chances of seeing snowfall from this. And with the further south and west trend in the models as of late, it may not be at all improbable to see precipitation further south into PA. Temps will be borderline, of course, for snow as it is the end of October after all. It's all going to boil down to how much and how rapidly this storm deepens. Elevation will likely be a factor as well. Follow up later tonight.